Since the onset of the conflict in Gaza, casualty figures have been a focal point of contention, with recent reports scrutinizing the statistics released by the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry. An analysis by a team of experts, including economist Tom Simpson, biomathematician Lewi Stone, and international law expert Gregory Rose, has labeled the Ministry’s figures as “statistically impossible,” sparking a critical examination of the data’s credibility.
The Gaza Health Ministry’s claim that 70% of the casualties are women and children has been widely circulated, even influencing global leaders’ statements. However, the expert report suggests that these numbers are “not reliable at all,” identifying substantial inconsistencies and statistical anomalies.
For instance, the discrepancy between registered hospital deaths and the total figures reported raises questions. The hospital-registered deaths indicate a much lower percentage of women and children casualties than the 70% stated, and the classification of unregistered deaths, which rely on unspecified ‘reliable media sources,’ appears to inflate the number of women and children to match the reported statistics. The expert report highlights that the implied ratio of women and children in unregistered ‘media sources’ deaths would be 92%, which is branded as “statistically absurd.”
Moreover, the figures imply that almost no male civilians have been killed if Hamas’s acknowledged loss of 6,000 male combatants is to be believed alongside the 70% women and children casualty statistic.
The analysis by Abraham Wyner provides additional evidence of manipulation within the reported data. The monotonous linear increase in total death counts and the lack of correlation between the daily casualty counts for women and children or men present another layer of improbability. The article also posits that the total casualty count is likely inflated and the methods used to report these numbers may be loosely connected to the actual events on the ground.
The integrity of Gaza’s Ministry of Health as the sole official source for casualty data is further called into question by discrepancies in death tolls from specific incidents, such as the explosion at al-Ahli Hospital. Conflicting accounts and subsequent revisions of the death toll have sown doubt in the ministry’s credibility.
While the United Nations and other international institutions, as well as Palestinian authorities in the West Bank, have previously considered the Health Ministry’s counts as conducted in good faith, the intricate web of numbers emerging from the recent conflict has complicated the narrative.
Despite the Health Ministry’s practices of data collection from various sources and rigorous record-keeping, the complex situation, including the chaos of war and limitations on movement and communication, adds layers of uncertainty to the figures released.
Relevant articles:
– Hamas’s ‘impossible’ casualty figures imply zero male civilians have been killed in Gaza, say data scientists
– How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers, Tablet Magazine, Wed, 06 Mar 2024 08:00:00 GMT
– What is Gaza’s Ministry of Health and how does it calculate the war’s death toll?, The Associated Press, Mon, 06 Nov 2023 08:00:00 GMT
– Don’t Fall for Hamas’ Numbers Game, American Enterprise Institute, Wed, 06 Mar 2024 08:00:00 GMT