In the early 20th century, a bold proclamation by the New York Times emerged. In an editorial titled “Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly,” dated October 9, 1903, The article incorrectly predicted it would take one to ten million years for humanity to develop an operating flying machine.
The article was penned in the wake of Samuel Langley’s high-profile failure with his Aerodrome, which plunged into the Potomac River. Influential figures such as Simon Newcomb, Lord Kelvin, and George W. Melville of the US Navy had dismissed the prospect of human flight as “wholly unwarranted, if not absurd.”
Yet, as fate would have it, Orville and Wilbur Wright were undeterred by the skeptics. The brothers, who had quietly toiled in relative obscurity, were on the cusp of a breakthrough. On the very day the Times article was published, Orville Wright wrote in his diary, “We started assembly today.”
On December 8, 1903, Langley made a final attempt to fly his Aerodrome. Once again, the experiment failed and official support for Langley’s project was withdrawn. Another New York Times editorial commented: We hope that Professor Langley will not put his substantial greatness as a scientist in further peril by continuing to waste his time and money for further airship experiments. Life is short, and he is capable of services to humanity incomparably greater than can expected to result from trying to fly …
Fast forward a mere 69 days from the editorial’s publication. On December 17, 1903, at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, the Wright Brothers piloted their Flyer to the first successful flight of a heavier-than-air craft.
The editorial’s errant prediction became a subject of public intrigue and even amusement, with President George W. Bush referencing it during the centennial celebration of the Wright Brothers’ historic flight. Astronaut Dave Williams dubbed it “perhaps the most infamous bad prediction of all time,” and political scientist P.W. Singer cited it as his favorite example of a prediction that was “completely and utterly wrong.”
Relevant articles:
– Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly