Maine has charted a new course in the tumultuous waters of U.S. presidential election reform by adopting the National Popular Vote law, inching the country closer to a future where the popular vote could decide the highest office in the land.
Maine Governor Janet Mills permitted a bill to pass into law without her signature. This legislation will come into effect once the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact secures pledges totaling at least 270 electoral votes, the threshold required to elect a president. Currently, the initiative has garnered commitments from 17 states and Washington, D.C., amounting to a combined total of 209 electoral votes.
The movement aims to alter the presidential election process without the need for a constitutional amendment. However, experts express uncertainty regarding the implications once a sufficient number of states have joined the initiative. It’s improbable that this will occur before the 2024 election.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact endeavors to ensure that the candidate who garners the highest number of popular votes across all 50 states and the District of Columbia secures the presidency.
Upon reaching the threshold of 270 Electoral College votes through states pledging their popular votes, the total votes from these states will be aggregated into a national count, determining the election winner. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact asserts that this approach will grant equal weight to each vote, irrespective of the voter’s location.
Five out of the 46 presidents elected to office have entered without winning the popular vote, with the most recent being Donald Trump in 2016. The compact asserts that the current system does not treat every vote equally. According to the compact’s website, “Under the current system, a small number of votes in a small number of states regularly decides the Presidency. All-or-nothing payoffs fuel doubt, controversy over real or imagined irregularities, hair-splitting post-election litigation, and unrest.”
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact highlights a stark example from the 2020 election, noting that if just 21,461 voters had changed their preferences, Joe Biden would have faced defeat, despite holding a nationwide lead of over 7 million votes. This narrow margin underscores the disproportionate influence of individual voters, with each of the specified 21,461 voters (5,229 in Arizona, 5,890 in Georgia, and 10,342 in Wisconsin) being deemed 329 times more significant than the millions of voters elsewhere. The contentious nature of the Electoral College is emphasized by experts, reflecting a partisan divide. While many Democrats advocate for its elimination, a greater number of Republicans stand in support of its retention.
Darrell West, a Douglas Dillon Chair in Governmental Studies at the Brookings Institute, explained in an interview with ABC News that when examining presidential elections spanning from 1992 to 2020, Republicans have secured the popular vote victory only once. This solitary instance occurred in 2004 when George W. Bush defeated John Kerry in the popular vote. However, in all other elections within the past three decades, Democrats have emerged victorious in the popular vote. Despite this trend, due to the Electoral College system, Republicans have managed to claim the presidency on a few occasions despite losing the popular vote.
According to West, Republicans perceive the Electoral College as beneficial to their interests at present, leading them to resist its abolition. He further noted that the current electoral system has resulted in only a few swing states, prompting candidates to concentrate their resources on these select areas. West highlighted that eliminating the Electoral College would encourage candidates to campaign across a broader spectrum of states. In such a scenario, every vote would hold equal weight regardless of the state, incentivizing candidates to engage with voters in regions that are typically overlooked during presidential campaigns.
Experts suggest that the most direct route to alter the method of electing presidents is through amending the U.S. Constitution. However, currently, there appears to be no viable pathway without achieving consensus between both political parties.
“Ultimately, there probably is going to have to be a constitutional amendment to get rid of the Electoral College, but everyone knows that’s not possible now for political reasons. It takes a very large majority in Congress as well as in the states to make any change to the Constitution. So what states are trying to figure out is, ‘Short of a constitutional amendment, are there ways to improve the Electoral College?'” stated West.
Relevant articles:
– State law takes US a step closer to popular vote deciding presidential elections,ABC News, 04/22/2024
– Commentary: Maine joins movement to do away with Electoral College, AOL, Sun, 21 Apr 2024 10:54:03 GMT
– Froma Harrop: As Nebraska goes, so could go Maine, West Central Tribune, Fri, 19 Apr 2024 18:20:00 GMT
– Abolishing the Electoral College Might Not Be As Hard As You Think, Harvard Political Review, Fri, 19 Apr 2024 13:04:06 GMT