The conflict in Ukraine enters May 2024, the Russian military continues to exert pressure across the eastern front. Recent assessments indicate that Russian forces have gathered a substantial Northern Grouping of Forces, suggesting a possible offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City is in the offing. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets put the number of personnel concentrated by the Russians in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts at roughly 50,000. This includes over 31,000 troops in Belgorod Oblast; over 10,000 in Kursk Oblast; and over 8,000 in Bryansk Oblast.
Ukrainian officials and international observers have increasingly warned about the threat of a Russian offensive operation aimed at seizing Kharkiv City. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) continues to assess that Russian forces likely lack the capacity to seize the city outright but could draw Ukrainian forces away from other critical frontlines.
These developments come amid discussions among US officials regarding support for Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, potentially looking towards 2025. The US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan emphasized the importance of US military assistance in helping Ukrainian forces to “hold the line” against Russian assaults through 2024. However, ISW has highlighted the risk of ceding the theater-wide initiative to Russia for the entirety of 2024, which could provide the Russian military with several advantages.
European intelligence agencies have reportedly warned their governments of an escalating Russian effort to conduct “violent acts of sabotage” across Europe, with unspecified European officials indicating a coordinated Russian effort “at scale.” The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) has assessed a “significantly increased” risk of Russian state-controlled acts of sabotage.
Amidst military maneuvers, the Kremlin has been using the religious sentiment of the Orthodox Easter holiday to rally domestic support for its military campaign. Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP) called for prayers for the Russian authorities and military, with President Putin echoing the Patriarch’s message, emphasizing the Church’s role in preserving Russian heritage and values.
Relevant articles:
– Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2024 , Critical Threats Project, 05/06/2024
– Confident of victory over Ukraine, Russia exhibits Western war trophies, The Washington Post, 05/04/2024
– How This Next Phase of Russia’s Ukraine War Looks, Newsweek, 05/05/2024
– Conflict reaches day 800; Russia says it curbed Ukrainian attacks overnight, CNBC, 05/03/2024
– Russia-Ukraine war: Lithuania hits out at Russia ‘disinformation’ over spy claims – as it happened, The Guardian, 05/03/2024