North Korea’s recent live artillery drills near the northwest maritime border have led South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff to officially declare the removal of buffer zones in the land and waters near the inter-Korean border. These zones were outlined in the 2018 Sept. 19 inter-Korean military agreement. Additionally, the Joint Chiefs revealed plans for South Korea to conduct its own artillery drills and training exercises in the region.
South Korea had halted its commitment to no-fly zones in the area following North Korea’s launch of a military surveillance satellite last November. Now, Seoul has declared that land and maritime no-hostility zones are null and that training exercises in the region will recommence.
The military pact of Sept. 19 is now almost consigned to history, raising the risk of military clashes or skirmishes by land, air, or sea in the border region. Critics of a hard-line policy argue that ongoing efforts for peace and reconciliatory dialogue should be pursued alongside firm responses to North Korea’s military provocations.
“North Korea declared the nullification of the Sept. 19 inter-Korean military agreement last year [Nov. 23], and recently they held three consecutive days of live artillery exercises near the western maritime border, which is supposed to be a no-hostility zone. Their behavior demonstrates that the no-hostility zone no longer exists,” the Joint Chiefs announced on Monday.
“Accordingly, we will resume standard maritime and land-based artillery drills and training exercises in former no-hostility zones,” the Joint Chiefs added.
“This means that the land and maritime no-hostility zones in the east and west coasts no longer exist,” the statement underscored.
South Korea responded to North Korea’s artillery exercises by staging live-fire drills after the firing of some 200 rounds near the South Korean islands of Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong prompted residents to take shelter. South Korea has disregarded the buffer zone, spanning 135 kilometers in the Yellow Sea, as it resumes its artillery firings and drills. This marks a significant shift from the 2018 agreement aimed at creating a peace-building measure between the two countries.
National Defense Minister Shin Won-sik has threatened North Korea with “obliteration” if they further provoke South Korea, adding that Seoul’s response will be “swift, forceful and definitive.” North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has vowed to prepare for a “great event to suppress the whole territory of south Korea by mobilizing all physical means and forces including nuclear forces in contingency.”
Considering that 2024 holds in store a general election in South Korea and a presidential election in the US, North Korea will likely continue escalating tensions throughout the year.
“Whenever the US and Japan offer an official response to military provocations from North Korea, they need to always include language that hints at peace, to ensure that the door for dialogue remains open,” said Cho Seong-ryoul, a visiting professor at the University of North Korean Studies who also served as the consul general in Osaka.
“Yet South Korea has closed that door by announcing the complete nullification of the Sept. 19 military agreement,” Cho lamented.
“Since autumn of last year, the US has been extending olive branches to China to prevent conflicts on the Korean Peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait, and will likely continue to do so leading up to the presidential election in November. The Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s hard-line approach to North Korea is in direct opposition to the international political situation,” Cho insisted.
Cheong Seong-chang, a director at the Sejong Institute, and other observers have expressed worries about a higher chance of unintended conflicts, particularly as North Korea may try to attract U.S. focus to the Korean Peninsula before the November presidential election.
The provocations and subsequent nullification of the buffer zones come in a context where both South and North Korea have been ramping up their rhetoric and military posturing. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has declared the two Koreas as “two states hostile to each other,” and the North has consistently accused the South of escalating tensions.
Relevant articles:
– S. Korea declares buffer zones with North to be nonexistent
– (News Focus) Inter-Korean buffer zones nullified following Pyongyang’s artillery drills
– South scraps maritime buffer zone after North fires artillery shells