In the recent Turkish local elections, a political undercurrent, largely unnoticed by many international observers, emerged as a defining factor in the results. Yeniden Refah Party, a relatively young but ideologically robust party, has been credited by many experts with significantly influencing the outcome of the polls, contributing to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP suffering a remarkable defeat.
With a nationwide vote share of 6.2 percent, Yeniden Refah, also known as “New Welfare,” has emerged as a significant third force in Turkish politics. Established in 2018, the party carries forward the legacy of Necmettin Erbakan, a prominent figure who once served as Erdogan’s mentor. Erbakan’s creation of the Milli Gorus (National Vision) Islamist movement in the late 1960s continues to resonate, inspiring numerous political parties in Turkey and enjoying considerable support among the Turkish diaspora in countries like Germany and France.
At the age of 21, Erdogan embarked on his political journey with the party, and it was the backing of Necmettin Erbakan that led to his election as Istanbul mayor in 1994. However, tensions arose between Erdogan and his mentor when Erdogan and his supporters attempted to remove Erbakan from leadership within the Refah party, eventually leading to the formation of the AKP in 2002, which excluded Erbakan and his allies.
Following the death of Necmettin Erbakan, affectionately known as “hodja” or “the professor,” in 2011, his son Fatih Erbakan revitalized the party in 2018, renaming it Yeniden Refah. Many observers believe that the younger Erbakan has upheld his father’s legacy by playing a role in President Erdogan’s recent election defeats, as his party diverted votes away from the AKP, enabling the secular opposition to secure victories not only in Istanbul but also in Ankara, Izmir, and Bursa. Yeniden Refah’s conservative-Islamic stance, under Fatih Erbakan’s leadership, is perceived as more stringent compared to the AKP, which is considered a more mainstream religious conservative party.
The party has taken a stance against feminism and in 2021, it endorsed Turkey’s decision to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention, which aims to combat violence against women. In recent months, the party has strongly criticized Turkey’s ongoing trade ties with Israel, particularly amidst the conflict in Gaza.
Fatih Erbakan, the party leader, stated several days before the election, “If the government stops trading with Israel, closes the radar in Malatya (installed in 2012 by NATO of which Turkey is a member) which protects Israel and doubles pensions to 20,000 Turkish lira (580 euros) a month, we are prepared to withdraw our candidate in Istanbul.”
Yeniden Refah effectively appealed to voters by emphasizing the Gaza conflict and the high inflation rate of 67 percent in its campaign. Despite having supported Erdogan’s re-election in 2023, the party secured victories in two provinces previously governed by the AKP: Sanliurfa in the southeast and Yozgat in the center.
With a nationwide vote share of 6.2 percent, Yeniden Refah outperformed Erdogan’s coalition partner, the MHP, which garnered 5 percent. Erdogan cautioned against trusting those who once supported but now oppose him. However, analysts suggest that the Turkish president might consider re-establishing the alliance in light of the election results.
Relevant articles:
– Yeniden Refah, The Turkish Islamist Party That Upended …, Barron’s, 23 hours ago
– Turkish local elections: Three reasons why Erdoğan lost to a groundswell, , Yetkin Report, April 01, 2024
– Turkey’s opposition is jubilant after winning municipal elections, , Westside People, April 02, 2024