Self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has threatened a possible attack on the Suwałki Gap – the territory that connects Poland with the Baltic States and separates the territory of the Kaliningrad Oblast from Belarus. The dictator discussed plans to seize parts of Lithuania and Poland with the commander of the Northwest Operational Command, Alexander Naumenko.
During the conversation, Lukashenko said that the Baltic States and Poland “constantly complain about this Suwałki Gap” and inquired about the width of the corridor, which is “just 42 kilometers in a straight line.” “It’s almost nothing. Yet, they behave this way. In such a case [possible attack on the Suwałki Gap – ed.], you [Naumenko] will have to confront the Baltic republics… And seize part of Poland,” Lukashenko said.
The commander assured Lukashenko of the readiness of Belarusian forces, noting that all actions are planned, and personnel are being prepared. This overt menacing dialogue comes as military analysts have recognized the Suwałki Gap as a potential target for a Russian offensive against NATO countries. Belarus and Russia form the Union State, with both heads of state emphasizing that aggression against Belarus would be considered an attack on Russia, stressing their cooperative defense stance.
Poland, in turn, has intensified its military preparedness near the contentious area. The Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak has announced the formation of a sapper battalion in Augustów, close to the Suwałki Gap, to counter any potential threats from Belarus and the Russian mercenary group Wagner, which has been reportedly eager to operate in the territory.
The presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus, following a Minsk-brokered deal, has set alarm bells ringing in Warsaw. With the possibility of Wagner forces moving into Polish territory, NATO’s Article 5 looms large, signifying that an attack on one member is an attack on all. Poland had redeployed 1,000 soldiers and has reinforced the border with an additional 500 police officers in July 2023, responding to the “tense situation.”
Lithuania, sharing concerns with Poland, has taken steps against Belarusians within its borders, revoking hundreds of residency permits and tightening border controls. The two countries have held urgent meetings to discuss the threat posed by the Wagner mercenaries, recognizing the strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap. If captured by hostile forces, the Baltic states could be isolated from NATO, compromising the alliance’s ability to defend its eastern members.
Lithuania’s President, Gitanas Nauseda, warned that the Suwalki Gap, which also runs along Lithuania’s border, could be a first objective for Belarus and Russia if they sought to expand the war in Ukraine to more direct confrontation with NATO, of which Lithuania is also a member.
Relevant articles:
– Belarus threatens to attack Lithuania and Poland
– Poland Forms Specialist Sapper Unit To Counter Wagner Threat, Newsweek, Mon, 24 Jul 2023 07:00:00 GMT
– Wagner Men Exiled by Putin Threaten New Firestorm in Europe, The Daily Beast, Sat, 05 Aug 2023 07:00:00 GMT
– Wagner troops could ‘cut off’ Baltic states from NATO, warns expert, Euronews, Tue, 15 Aug 2023 07:00:00 GMT