Amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, divergent views on the implications of Putin’s invasion for global safety have emerged. Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell, a retired British defence chief, posits a paradox where Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine has inadvertently made Europe safer. His argument, as reported by the Daily Star, is grounded in the significant depletion of Russia’s military capabilities and the improbability of Russia posing a threat to Europe for the foreseeable future. Bell’s assessment, “The world has become a safer place since Russia invaded Ukraine,” offers a contrarian perspective to the dominant narrative of heightened global insecurity.
Bell’s view aligns with the observation of Russia’s apparent military and economic resilience despite the invasion’s setbacks. Nonetheless, the regime’s stability is questioned by Maksim Samorukov, a Fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, who draws parallels between Putin’s contemporary Russia and the late Soviet Union, hinting at a regime always on the brink of collapse. The personalized, arbitrary, and often delusional decision-making process in Moscow poses a threat to the regime’s longevity. This risk is compounded by the recent ISIS-K attack in Moscow, showcasing the consequences of the Kremlin’s tunnel vision and its inability to effectively leverage intelligence from the West due to deeply rooted suspicions.
Further amplifying concerns about regional and global safety are recent events surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Europe’s largest nuclear station, currently occupied by Russian forces. Reports of drone strikes and plans to restart the plant have raised the specter of a potential nuclear disaster. The danger is exacerbated by strained safety systems, reduced cooling water supplies, and an absence of viable economic incentives for the power plant’s operation amid the conflict.
Russia has recently announced plans to restart the plant, greatly increasing the risk of a nuclear accident. Operating reactors offer less time before accidents if damaged or safety systems fail. Russian nuclear experts tasked with this would struggle to grasp ZNPP specifics due to numerous post-construction changes.
In addition to nuclear risks, geopolitical tensions have escalated as Russia has threatened to target NATO nuclear facilities if nuclear weapons are deployed in Poland. This response to Poland’s readiness to host NATO allies’ nuclear weapons exemplifies the potential for broader military confrontations in Eastern Europe.
Relevant articles:
– Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has made the world ‘safer’ and ‘WW3 is not imminent’, Irish Star, 04/26/2024
– Putin’s Brittle Regime, Foreign Affairs Magazine, Thu, 25 Apr 2024 04:00:00 GMT
– Ukraine war: Putin’s plan to fire up Zaporizhzhia power plant risks massive nuclear disaster, The Conversation, Wed, 24 Apr 2024 16:28:03 GMT
– Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russia responds to Poland’s claim it could host nuclear weapons, Sky News, Wed, 24 Apr 2024 12:36:01 GMT
– Ukraine war: UN body urges restraint after Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant hit, Yahoo News Canada, Thu, 25 Apr 2024 18:56:49 GMT