In a political climate fraught with legal skirmishes and polling uncertainties, the shadow of a potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump looms large over the 2024 election forecast. Amidst the anticipatory buzz, forecasting pioneer Allan Lichtman, with his track record of election predictions, suggests that “a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”
Meanwhile, the voting landscape faces technological and legal challenges, from cyberattacks in Georgia to Supreme Court decisions on presidential immunity claims. Questions arise about the influence of these factors on voters’ confidence and decision-making. Trump’s legal battles continue to make headlines, with his Supreme Court appointees deliberating on his claims of presidential immunity, while his personal conduct is scrutinized in a New York hush money trial. Polls reveal that while many of Trump’s supporters might stick with him despite a conviction, a significant portion could reconsider, potentially altering the tight electoral race.
On the international front, the Israel-Hamas conflict has injected another complex dimension into the electoral calculus. Although polling data reveals a generational and ideological shift in American attitudes toward the conflict, its influence on the presidential election remains uncertain.
538’s polling averages provide a snapshot of the current electoral pulse, with Biden and Trump virtually tied nationally and Trump showing a slight edge in key swing states. The intricacies of polling methodologies and adjustments are crucial in painting a more nuanced picture of the electoral landscape, with partisan and independent polls alike being weighted and adjusted for biases.
Public opinion on Trump’s legal woes varies significantly along party lines, as seen in a recent CNN poll. The majority of Americans are uncertain about whether Trump is treated similarly to other defendants, and confidence in a fair jury verdict is limited. Furthermore, the relevance of the various charges against Trump to his presidential fitness is increasingly debated among the electorate.
Lichtman, known for accurately predicting presidential election winners since the 1980s, forecasted Biden’s victory over Trump in the 2020 election. In an interview with The Guardian, he attributed Trump’s loss to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The message of the keys is, it’s governance not campaigning that counts and instead of dealing substantively with the pandemic, as we know, he thought he could talk his way out of it and that sank him,” Lichtman said, per The Guardian.
Relevant articles:
– Forecasting pioneer: ‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’, The Hill, 04/28/2024
– Trump vs. Biden Polls: Will the War in Gaza Decide the 2024 Race?, New York Magazine, Sat, 27 Apr 2024 09:00:36 GMT
– ‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’: can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?, The Guardian US, Fri, 26 Apr 2024 18:57:00 GMT
– Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally, ABC News, Thu, 25 Apr 2024 14:03:45 GMT
– CNN Poll: Few think Trump is being treated the same as other defendants, CNN, Thu, 25 Apr 2024 22:35:00 GMT