In a series of incremental advances, Russian forces continue to push forward along the eastern frontlines of Ukraine. The severe challenges faced by Kyiv as it awaits much-needed military support from the United States and other allies. The modest gains, ranging from a few hundred meters to a kilometer in some areas, mark a new tempo on the battlefield since Russia’s capture of the industrial town of Avdiivka in February.
The war drags on, these tactical achievements are becoming a daily occurrence for Russian troops, particularly in the Donetsk region. Reports from both military bloggers and Ukraine’s DeepState monitoring group have noted Russian progression in up to eight different locations along a 20-25 km stretch of the frontline within a 24-hour period. The most notable advancements include the capture of Semenivka and Berdychi, confirmed by Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Additionally, the settlements of Soloviove and Keramik have fallen into Russian control to some extent.
Amid these developments, a discrepancy has emerged between official Ukrainian military communications and the observations of influential military bloggers and analysts. Accusations of increasingly unrealistic updates have sparked criticism, with DeepState and others challenging official claims about the control of certain areas like Soloviove and Ocheretyne villages.
Ukrainian officials, backed by analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), view Russia’s intensified efforts as a prelude to a larger offensive planned for later this spring. Moscow seeks to capitalize on its ammunition advantage before newly authorized US aid reaches Ukrainian frontlines. The ISW foresees more short-term setbacks for Ukraine, albeit without major strategic defeats, as Russian forces may gain tactically in the weeks ahead while Ukrainian defenses await bolstering from international support.
A critical factor in this dynamic is Ukraine’s manpower compared to Russia’s quantitative edge in troops. The introduction of a new mobilization law in Ukraine is anticipated to improve conscription processes, yet there remains reluctance from Kyiv to state clearly its additional soldier requirements. Conversely, Moscow continues to swell its forces, according to Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Relevant articles:
– Russia is making daily tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, as concerns swirl around Ukrainian military reporting, Yahoo! Voices, Sun, 28 Apr 2024 11:39:10 GMT
– ISW: Russian forces to make significant tactical gains before Ukraine stabilizes frontlines later on, Euromaidan Press, Sun, 28 Apr 2024 08:19:48 GMT
– Ukrainian army chief reports tactical retreat in the east, Express & Star, Sun, 28 Apr 2024 18:01:15 GMT