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    $61bn US Aid Boost: Will it Change the Tide for Ukraine Against Russian Advances?

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    The US Senate has passed a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, marking a significant escalation in American support as Kyiv attempts to fend off Russian aggression. As the bill heads to President Joe Biden’s desk for his signature, the question on many observers’ minds is: What weapons might Ukraine receive, and could these make a significant difference in the conflict?

    The urgency of Ukraine’s need for this aid cannot be overstated.  The aid package comes at a critical juncture where air defense systems, mid to long-range missiles, and artillery shells are the most pressing needs for Ukraine to hold off Russian forces and protect its cities and infrastructure.

    Notably, the advanced – and extremely costly – Patriot system is among the aid’s highlights, which President Zelensky has emphasized the need for. With at least seven more Patriots or their equivalents deemed necessary, this boost in air defense could be pivotal in countering Russia’s missiles and drones, a tactic often used to overwhelm air defenses by swamping them with targets.

    In terms of ground warfare, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) have been a critical factor in Ukraine’s defense strategy, providing a mobile platform for guided munitions. The US aid could see an increase in HIMARS capabilities and perhaps a commitment for more tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Particularly noteworthy is the potential transfer of the long-range version of the US Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine, which could double ranges to 300km, taking the fight deeper into Russian-annexed territories.

    President Biden has underscored the urgency of rushing weaponry to Ukraine, following the long congressional battle over the assistance. The initial shipment under the package will include air defense capabilities, artillery rounds, armored vehicles, and other weapons to support Ukrainian forces, which have suffered morale blows and setbacks in recent months.

    However, despite this influx of support, the sustainability of Ukraine’s military efforts remains a concern. The US has a robust logistics network to deliver arms quickly, but the front-line transfer of artillery equipment could be time-consuming. Additionally, Russia has signaled its intent to intensify strikes on logistics centers and storage depots holding Western weapons.

    As the US moves to deliver this significant aid, the involvement of F-16 fighter jets is also notable. Ukrainian pilots are undergoing conversion training to these jets in Romania, signaling a stronger multi-role air-to-air and air-to-ground capability. With Denmark, the Netherlands, and the US expecting to deliver the first “Vipers” to Ukraine within months, these could provide another layer of strength to Kyiv’s forces, despite Moscow’s dismissive stance.

    While the Biden administration has already ruled out issuing an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO during the summit, two of Ukraine’s leading advocates in Congress are urging the president to approach the event with the idea that “Ukraine should be offered a realistic path to NATO membership” once it has met the alliance’s conditions and requirements.

    “We must send an unmistakable message to Putin that Ukraine’s future lies firmly with Europe,” Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) wrote in a letter to Biden on Friday.

    Relevant articles:
    What weapons are being supplied to Ukraine?, BBC, 04/28/2024
    Biden says the US is rushing weaponry to Ukraine as he signs a $95 billion war aid measure into law, ABC News, Sun, 28 Apr 2024 12:37:19 GMT
    With U.S. aid resumed, Ukraine will try to dig itself out of trouble, The Washington Post, Sun, 28 Apr 2024 01:42:00 GMT
    Ukrainian troops retreat, Russian forces advance, as Kyiv awaits weapons infusion, Voice of America – VOA News, Sun, 28 Apr 2024 22:36:20 GMT
    Ukraine pulls back from three villages in east as Russia claims gains, Al Jazeera English, Sun, 28 Apr 2024 20:02:11 GMT

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