Iran’s direct attack on Israel on April 14, involving over 350 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, emerged as a bold retort following a series of Israeli airstrikes in Syria that targeted Iranian military figures, including the killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi.
The Kayhan newspaper, affiliated with Iran’s supreme leader, described the attack as penetrating Israel’s multilayered defense envelope, marking Iran’s determination to establish a new equilibrium with Israel despite Israel’s superior aerial and technological capabilities. IRGC commander Hossein Salami further reinforced this narrative by suggesting that Iran would now directly counterattack Israel henceforth.
The potential for severe damage, the vast majority of Iran’s weapons barrage was successfully intercepted, enabling Israel to respond in a measured manner. This response did not go unnoticed in Tehran; Iranian officials appeared willing to avoid further escalation, although downplaying the severity of Israel’s retaliation.
Ahmad Haghtalab, the IRGC commander in charge of nuclear security in Iran, indicated that Israeli threats might compel Iran to reconsider its nuclear doctrine and move beyond its current nuclear-threshold status.
This necessitates a concerted effort with the United States and regional partners to contain the Iranian threat and pursue an alternative regional architecture, favoring normalization processes with the Arab world and deepening connections with traditional allies.
The U.S. and Israel have sparred with Iran over the years without igniting a full-scale regional war, a balanced strategy that combines deterrence by denial with deterrence by punishment might be necessary. This would thwart Iranian activities while holding at risk or destroying assets that Iran values, thus establishing a more effective deterrent.
Nothing about the Arab response to this round of Iranian-Israeli confrontation suggests that these positions have shifted. Iran continues to develop its military capabilities and a ring of regional proxies, some of which are on Israel’s borders and, therefore, keep Tel Aviv on its toes.
Relevant articles:
– This round of Iran-Israel escalation is over, but the next could be just around the corner, Atlantic Council, 04/28/2024
– Denial or Punishment? The U.S.-Israel Debate About How Best to Deter Iran, The Washington Institute, Fri, 26 Apr 2024 16:47:09 GMT
– Is an Anti-Iran Alliance Emerging in the Middle East?, Foreign Affairs Magazine, Fri, 26 Apr 2024 04:00:00 GMT
– Israel And Iran Between Deterrence And Destruction – OpEd, Eurasia Review, Sat, 27 Apr 2024 22:23:27 GMT
– Why Iran may accelerate its nuclear program, and Israel may be tempted to attack it, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Fri, 26 Apr 2024 17:13:09 GMT