As leaders from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) prepare to convene for the upcoming seventy-fifth anniversary summit in Washington on July 9-11, the stakes for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine are mounting. The convergence of a new Russian offensive, military aid delays from the United States, and a decisive phase in the war looms ominously over the horizon.
The recent authorization of $60.8 billion in US aid, which has been stalled in Congress for months, is a potential game-changer for Ukraine. As Russian forces intensify their campaign, seizing more ground and mobilizing upwards of 300,000 soldiers by some estimates, the infusion of desperately needed ammunition and air defenses could prove timely for Ukrainian forces. However, the new Russian push appears to be in its initial stages, potentially coinciding with or overlapping the NATO summit, raising the question of how the US and its allies will respond.
A pivotal concern is the extent to which Russian land forces have been reconstituted since their initial losses. Ukrainian gains have been matched by Russian advances, particularly in the eastern regions of the country. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, described the situation in the eastern cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove as “the most difficult one,” with Russia using significant numbers of troops in their offensive operations. The intensity of these battles could be a harbinger of a larger conflict that may put NATO’s resolve and strategies under the spotlight.
Amid the unfolding crisis, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s recent remarks carry a weight of urgency. He has emphasized that while Ukraine can still win the war, NATO allies need to fulfill their commitments with prompt delivery of weapons and ammunition. “In recent months, NATO allies have not provided the support we have promised,” he said, adding: “But it is not too late for Ukraine to prevail because more support is on the way. “Stoltenberg’s statement serves as an implicit acknowledgment of the delayed military assistance and its consequent impact on the battlefield.
Moreover, the upcoming NATO summit presents both an opportunity and a challenge for the Alliance. It is not merely a ceremonial occasion but a moment of strategic significance. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s possible intent to humiliate NATO during its anniversary celebration by launching a major offensive could test the Alliance’s unity and strategic resolve. The specter of the US presidential election further complicates the situation. Decisions made by the Biden administration at this juncture could shape both the immediate outcomes on the battlefield and the broader geopolitical landscape.
NATO’s transatlantic community is at a crossroads where a “shared vision of victory” for Ukraine is urgently needed, as are resources and strategies to achieve it. The coming months may determine whether the US and its European allies opt to increase their risk profile, both militarily in Ukraine and politically at home, to stem Russian advances and give Ukraine a tangible chance at turning the tide.
Relevant articles:
– The war in Ukraine could reach a decision point by the NATO Summit. Policymakers need to prepare now., Atlantic Council, 04/28/2024
– Ukraine-Russia war latest: Fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine as troops fall back, top general says; UK minister estimates 450,000 Russian losses since war began, Sky News, Fri, 26 Apr 2024 12:43:07 GMT
– Stoltenberg: ‘It is not too late for Ukraine to prevail’, Kyiv Independent, Fri, 26 Apr 2024 05:44:54 GMT