Vladimir Putin’s forces are making consistent tactical advances along the eastern front in Ukraine, including new gains in the northern Kharkiv region, marking a period of heightened military activity and concern over the strength of Ukrainian defense.
In the Donetsk region, one of the main areas of Russian effort, the DeepState monitoring group has reported Russian forces pushing forward in eight different locations along a 20-25 km stretch of the frontline within a single day. Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed on Telegram that Russia had taken control of Semenivka and Berdychi, deploying up to four brigades for offensive operations.
Military bloggers have highlighted the fall of Soloviove and partial control over Keramik by Russian troops, with Ukrainian forces continuing a withdrawal in the Donetsk operational zone. The industrial town of Krasnohorivka is also witnessing fierce fighting, particularly around a large brick factory, a strategic point whose loss could signify a broader territorial defeat for Ukrainian forces.
Moreover, about 180 km to the north in Kharkiv region, Ukraine’s frontline stability has been disrupted by a Russian advance into the village of Kyslivka, marking their first significant push into the area in months.
DeepState has disputed official Ukrainian claims about control over Soloviove and Ocheretyne, suggesting that the reality on the ground is different from the more optimistic picture painted by spokespeople such as Nazar Voloshyn. Meanwhile, Ukrainian army chief Syrskyi acknowledged the escalating situation, stating, “The situation at the front has escalated. Trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front line, the enemy has concentrated its main efforts in several directions, creating a significant advantage in forces and means.”
The situation is being exacerbated by delayed Western military support, as noted by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who lamented the serious consequences of these delays on the battlefield. He pointed to the lack of ammunition, air defense systems, and deep strike capabilities as factors enabling Russian forces to push forward and consolidate their gains. Urgent assistance is critical as Ukraine awaits the arrival of recently greenlit U.S. supplies.
Military analysts, including the Institute for the Study of War, anticipate that Russia’s increased tempo is a precursor to a major offensive planned for later in the spring. Russia appears to be leveraging its ammunition advantage before U.S. supplies reach the Ukrainian frontlines. The ISW assesses that “Russian forces will likely make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for US security assistance to arrive at the front but remain unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.”
Ukraine’s additional quantitative weakness, its manpower, is expected to see some relief with a new mobilization law next month. However, Moscow continues to bolster its numbers, amplifying the pressure on Ukrainian defenses. As Rob Lee from the Foreign Policy Research Institute has emphasized, the quantity of Russian forces, despite variable quality, presents a serious challenge. “The relative manpower situation is likely the most important factor that will determine the war’s trajectory, particularly if Russia can sustain recruiting 20-30k a month,” Lee stated.
Relevant articles:
– Russia is making daily tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, as concerns swirl around Ukrainian military reporting , CNN, 04/30/2024
– NATO chief chides members as Ukraine’s allies say slow arms deliveries have helped Russia, ABC News, Mon, 29 Apr 2024 17:56:16 GMT
– Russian advances could give it a shot at Ukraine’s eastern ‘fortress belt,’ war analysts warn, Business Insider, Mon, 29 Apr 2024 20:49:00 GMT
– Ukraine-Russia war latest: At least four dead in daytime missile strike on port city – as massive building on fire, Sky News, Mon, 29 Apr 2024 18:11:53 GMT