The Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan or ISIS-K, is intensifying its recruitment efforts amid the country’s ongoing instability, leveraging economic hardship and the Taliban’s challenges in consolidating power. The resurgence of ISIS-K has heightened fears among the U.S., United Nations, and regional stakeholders that Afghanistan could once again become a breeding ground for terrorism.
The Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan (SIGAR) reported a spike in ISIS-K recruitment, with the group bolstering its ranks and expanding its ability to launch attacks beyond Afghanistan’s borders. The report supports the testimony presented to Congress in March by Gen. Erik Kurilla, who acknowledged an “expanding cadre of fighters” within ISIS-K.
Kamran Bokhari, of the New Lines Institute, underscored the gravity of the situation. “ISIS-K is having a resurgence,” he said, pointing out the fertile environment for extremist activities created by the Taliban’s struggles with governance and social unrest. “These are all the conditions you would expect ISIS to try to exploit, and they are.”
Indeed, ISIS-K has claimed responsibility for a horrific series of attacks, including the storming of a Russian concert venue and bombings in Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey. These incidents signify not only the group’s violent reach but also the internationalization of its terror campaign. Michael Kugelman from the Wilson Center suggested that while the Taliban have scored tactical victories against ISIS-K within Afghanistan, they seem to be failing in curbing the group’s transnational threat capabilities.
The Taliban, traditional adversaries of ISIS-K, have fought the group before and after their seizure of Afghanistan in 2021. The reduction in ISIS-K attacks within Afghanistan may indicate some success in these confrontations. However, Kugelman warns that “the jury’s still out on whether they’ve succeeded strategically.”
Meanwhile, other militant organizations in Afghanistan, like al-Qaida, persist in a weakened form but are nonetheless striving to expand their influence and training capabilities, according to SIGAR’s report and a UN sanctions monitoring team. This reality suggests a complex and enduring security challenge for Afghanistan and the broader region.
The surge in extremism isn’t confined to Afghanistan. The eleventh edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) reveals a 22 percent increase in terrorism fatalities globally, marking a substantial uptick in terror activity with 8,351 victims. Pakistan has suffered acutely, topping the list of most-affected countries with 490 attacks.
Terrorism and extremism in Central Asia have also burgeoned, with the Taliban’s nearly three-year rule in Afghanistan raising alarms, particularly among neighboring states. The Taliban’s connections to terror groups, including regional entities and al-Qaida, have not been severed, contributing to the region’s instability.
Afghanistan’s precarious situation has had repercussions for its neighbors. Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Akram Munir, has decried the presence of terrorists within Afghan borders, while Asif Ali Khan Durrani, Pakistan’s special representative for Afghanistan affairs, emphasized the significant toll terrorism has exacted on Pakistan, far surpassing the damages incurred in its historical conflicts with India.
Iran has been similarly afflicted by terrorist violence, with ISIS-K claiming responsibility for a deadly attack in Kerman and assaults on the Shah Cheragh Holy Shrine.
Relevant articles:
– Islamic State group said to be recruiting greater numbers in Afghanistan , Stripes, 05/02/2024
– Surging Extremism and Terrorism in Central Asia and the Region, Hasht-e Subh Daily, 05/01/2024
– The Islamic State group says it was behind a mosque attack in Afghanistan that killed 6 people, Yahoo News Canada, 04/30/2024