In the escalating conflict that continues to grip Eastern Europe, the stakes for both Ukraine and Russia are higher than ever. With the United States and its allies committing substantial resources to bolster Ukraine’s defense, the question looms whether this injection of aid will tip the scales against Russian advances. Our examination begins with a sobering reality: despite Western support, Ukrainian forces faced setbacks as they attempted a significant counteroffensive to reclaim occupied territories. The delayed $61bn US aid package is cited as a contributing factor to their challenges on the frontlines, and as military analyst Sean Bell states, “Ukraine has lost ground…and Russia has momentum.”
The current military analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict reveals a stark reality. Russia, benefiting from a momentum of advancement, has strategized for a long-term conflict, betting on the erosion of Western support for Ukraine. Ukraine would have lost the war without this additional U.S. funding. The United States provides about half the military aid to Ukraine; without that, Ukrainian combat capabilities would be weakened. Russian forces were attacking in half a dozen areas along the front, and Ukrainian troops had to pull back in some places to more defensible lines. Ukrainian casualties increased, and more Russian missiles got through Ukrainian air defenses to hit targets in the rear.
In the face of Russia’s momentum, Western hesitancy appears to bolster President Putin’s resolve, potentially rendering him “a more dangerous threat to the West in the coming years.” The stakes are further heightened by reports of Russia’s brutal conduct, with allegations of war crimes against Ukrainian POWs, underscoring the conflict’s grim nature.
Amid these complexities, a new $61 billion aid package from the US has emerged as a potential game-changer, offering not only military equipment but also economic support structured as loans, humanitarian aid, and funds for enhancing the U.S. force presence in Europe. This package represents a massive increase in aid, bringing the total U.S. commitment to $175 billion since the invasion’s inception. It will produce an immediate surge in deliveries of military equipment, which had fallen to about 10 percent of what they had been last year. Because of the delay, another funding package will not be needed until January. That pushes it past the presidential campaign.
Relevant articles:
– Ukraine-Russia war latest: Macron explains at what point he’d send troops to Ukraine; children injured in guided bomb attack, Sky News, 05/02/2024
– Russia troops accused of ‘executing’ surrendering Ukraine soldiers: Report, Al Jazeera English, 05/02/2024
– Russian and Ukrainian casualties rise in a ‘meat grinder’ of a war, The Washington Post, 04/30/2024
– What Is in the Ukraine Aid Package, and What Does it Mean for the Future of the War?, CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies, 05/01/2024