The skies above Northern Europe have been increasingly fraught with invisible disruptions. Since the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, NATO members bordering Russia have been grappling with a growing concern: GPS signal interference, a problem which has now worsened, affecting both aviation and maritime navigation across a swath of the Baltic Sea and into northern Norway.
According to reports, tens of thousands of flights have had to resort to alternative navigation systems, with the Finnish flag carrier Finnair notably suspending its route to Estonia’s Tartu airport. The impact has not been isolated to the skies, as maritime navigation has also been disrupted. In northeastern Norway, where proximity to Russia’s Northern Fleet base makes the presence of electronic warfare palpable, GPS outages have become a near-daily occurrence.
While losing GPS signals mid-flight doesn’t inherently spell immediate danger due to the existence of older alternative navigational systems, the inherent risks cannot be downplayed. Dana Goward, director of the Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation, cautions that any interference “inevitably reduces the safety and efficiency of aviation.” It is a sentiment echoed by experts and officials alike who are witnessing a stark rise in the cases of interference and spoofing – the broadcast of false GPS signals to mislead receivers.
Authorities in affected countries have not minced words in assigning blame for these disruptions. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna, vocal in his condemnation, insists that the interference is a part of “Russia’s hostile activities” and describes it as “a hybrid attack.”
Martin Herem, commander of the Estonian Armed Forces, said in a recent interview with a local media that Russia is “testing” its powerful electronic warfare systems in anticipation of a future conflict with NATO. Goward and Walter believe this is a reasonable argument, and both have no doubt that at least part of the interference in the Baltics is intentional.
At the end of January, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) held a meeting in the German city of Cologne to address the growing cases of interference and spoofing. In a joint statement, EASA and IATA noted that the problems with GPS “pose significant challenges to aviation safety” and, in the absence of viable technical solutions in the short term, called for improved pilot training to address the issue.
Relevant articles:
– Russia leaves thousands of planes without GPS in northern Europe, english.elpais.com, 05/04/2024
– Russia accused of jamming GPS navigation, BBC, 05/02/2024
– Russia’s GPS jamming intensifies over the Baltic Sea, Le Monde, 05/02/2024