Venezuela’s controversial military buildup near the disputed Essequibo region, which abuts the border with Guyana, continues to foment tension and concern among international observers.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a prominent think tank based in Washington, has shared alarming insights into the situation. In a report, the CSIS warns that Venezuela is deepening its military footprint in the area, despite the significant risks and limited rewards associated with a full-blown conflict over the Essequibo region. The ongoing developments have intensified fears of an armed confrontation, a situation Guyana describes as an “existential” threat.
Recent satellite images divulge sustained construction and expansion of a military base near Anacoco Island, a strategically significant point awarded to Guyana by a 19th-century international tribunal, which Venezuela later annexed in the 1960s. The island, situated on the Cuyuni River, now showcases a bridge connecting it to the mainland, an extended airfield, and, strikingly, an area that once hosted over 75 field tents.
Moreover, the strategic positioning of at least two Iranian-built Peykaap III fast missile boats at Venezuela’s coastal guard station at Punta Barima ominously places military capabilities within striking distance of the Essequibo. It just 40 miles (64 kilometers) from the Guyanese border.
The threats to Guyana have concerned its partners. Last week, two US Navy F/A-18 fighter jets flew over the capital Georgetown, demonstrating “our routine security cooperation and expanding bilateral defense partnership with Guyana,” the US Embassy in Guyana wrote.
While smaller than Idaho, Guyana is home to vast oil reserves and is on track to become the world’s highest per capita oil producer. It, however, has an army estimated to be less than 5,000 soldiers, and lacks the hardware or manpower to face possible Venezuelan aggression. All things considered, “if you’re if you’re Guyana, and your army is 5,000 people, it doesn’t seem like the Venezuelans are taking their foot off the gas,” the director of the Americas Program at CSIS Ryan Berg said.
There has been speculation that the upcoming Venezuelan elections at the end of July have given Maduro the motivation to escalate against Guyana, using it as a way to distract from his record: Millions of people have fled the country due to poor economic conditions, food shortages and limited access to health care. CSIS argues that instead of tamping down the aggression after the vote, “Maduro may be tempted to ramp up both rhetoric and action related to the Essequibo in a true gambit to manufacture a regional crisis in the aftermath of a stolen election.”
It may not be in Maduro’s interest to “initiate a full-blown conflict with neighbor Guyana, but his escalatory rhetoric tethers his political reputation and legitimacy to his willingness to back his words with force” especially with his key internal ally, the armed forces, CSIS writes. “Thus, one of the most concerning possibilities is that Maduro will fall victim to his own rhetoric. He has whipped up nationalist passions without providing an escape valve.”
Relevant articles:
– Venezuela expands military presence at Guyana border in ‘perpetual prewar footing,’ says report, cnn.com, 05/16/2024
– Venezuela’s Military Buildup Near Disputed Essequibo Region Heightens Tensions, Channel 5 Belize, 05/14/2024
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