Lebanon stands at a crossroads, entangled in regional geopolitics that shape its internal stability and the influence of external actors on its political landscape. Amidst this, the United States and Saudi Arabia have been crafting their respective approaches, aiming to assert influence and counteract Hezbollah’s prominence in the country. Despite different tactical approaches, both countries view Lebanon through the prism of their broader Middle East strategies, particularly their stance on Iran.
Recently, discussions between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) and former President Trump have shown a united front on the perception that Lebanon is now within Iran’s sphere of influence, largely due to the role of Hezbollah. This assertion presents a challenging situation, with the United States encouraging Saudi Arabia to focus on “renewed investment and constructive engagement in Lebanon, instead of retreat and defeat,” highlighting the importance of Lebanon’s stability within regional dynamics.
The controversial episode of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s detention in Saudi Arabia underscored the high stakes and complexities involved in Lebanon’s politics. The incident not only caused a surge of Lebanese nationalism but also exposed the precarious balance of power within the country and the limitations of aggressive external intervention.
The strategic focus for the United States and Saudi Arabia is on mitigating the potential gains of Hezbollah, which they see as a proxy of Iran, in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The belief among U.S. military officials in the region and numerous experts is that a more assertive investment in Lebanon’s military, national institutions, and Hezbollah’s political opponents is essential to contain the group’s influence.
While U.S.-Saudi collaboration has found a common cause in Lebanon, strategies differ slightly. The U.S. has engaged in electoral support and relationship-building with the Future Movement and other parties, such as the nonsectarian Beirut Madinati coalition and the Christian Kataeb party. It is understood that these efforts aim to rebuild ties with parties opposed to Hezbollah, but the impact remains unclear.
Security cooperation is another critical area of focus. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have considered resuming funding for the Lebanese Armed Forces, a move that would mark a departure from Saudi’s 2016 decision to cut off assistance and the U.S.’s suspension of Foreign Military Financing for Lebanon in 2018. Enhancing Lebanon’s military capabilities is seen as a key component in confronting Hezbollah’s military strength.
Moreover, there is an effort to work with local journalists to highlight Iran’s influence in Lebanon and promote media freedom through material and technical support to independent news outlets and journalists. This approach recognizes Lebanon’s relatively open and robust media landscape as an asset in countering pro-Hezbollah and pro-Iran narratives.
Relevant articles:
– The Case for U.S. Support of Lebanon, National Intererst, 05/18/2024
– A Year of Arab Engagement with Assad Has Failed, The Washington Institute, 05/15/2024
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