Following the takeover of Avdiivka in February, Russian forces have been steadily escalating their offensive in the Donbas region, particularly focusing on the area around Ocheretyne and the Ukrainian-held city of Chasiv Yar. Within 24 hours, Ukraine’s defence ministry registered a staggering total of 125 Russian attacks along the extensive 700-kilometre frontline. This marks a significant increase from previous months, signaling a push for territorial gains as Ukraine anticipates Western military support.
A comparison reveals a stark escalation; in March, 53 attacks were reported, including 21 in Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar, illustrating the concentrated efforts of Russian troops in these key areas. As Russian forces move westward from Avdiivka, the intensity of their campaign has raised alarms within Ukraine and resulted in internal criticism. The DeepState Telegram channel, reportedly linked to the Ukrainian army, has voiced concerns over the “collapse of defences in the area, which led to considerable losses.” The Ukrainian brigade involved stated on Facebook that they “did not run away” but faced firepower from Russian positions that was “10 to 15 times” more powerful than their own.
There have been no major breakthroughs, yet the Russian advance has nonetheless surprised many and sparked debate within Ukraine. The strategic T0504 road lies within reach of Russian troops, a concern for Ukraine given its proximity to a mere dozen kilometres from the frontline. Meanwhile, civilians have begun digging trenches and anti-tank ditches along this road, indicating preparations for a sustained defence effort.
Commander Yuri Fedorenko, of the Achilles drone battalion of the 92nd brigade, stressed the urgency of the situation, noting that “These two months of war will be very, very, very intense. The enemy will try to take as much as possible between now and then,” he said, referencing the anticipated two-month timeframe before Western arms supplies begin to materialize on the battlefield.
The capture of Chasiv Yar does not appear imminent, but should Russian forces succeed, it would enable them to control key locations such as Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Kramatorsk with long-range firepower, turning them into strongholds for further advances. Russian troops have used innovative tactics, including off-road motorcycles, to “breach our positions,” as described by a brigade commander, taking advantage of their speed and maneuverability.
The situation remains dynamic, with Ukrainian forces so far managing to resist attacks to the east and north of Chasiv Yar, but facing advancing Russian troops from the south. A significant natural barrier, a dried-up canal six metres deep and 30 metres wide, stands between Russian forces and the capture of the city. Despite this, the persistent Russian tactic of aerial bombardment followed by artillery barrages and assaults with armoured vehicles and infantry continues, despite the heavy casualties sustained.
Relevant articles:
– Missile Strikes Hit Oil Depot in Occupied Luhansk, ATACMS Reportedly Used , Kyiv Post, 05/08/2024
– Russia ramps up Ukraine offensive ahead of arms boost, The Economic Times, 05/07/2024
– Russia Intensifies Offensive in Donbas as Ukraine Braces for Escalation, News Track English, 05/07/2024
– Putin Embarks on Fifth Term Amidst Global Scrutiny: A Look into Russia’s Political Landscape, News Track English, 05/07/2024
– Ukraine war latest: Russian Mangust-class vessel destroyed in Crimea, military intelligence says, Kyiv Independent, 05/06/2024