Recent satellite imagery has intensified concerns regarding North Korea’s submarine capabilities and the possible advent of a new threat in the form of missile-launch submarines. The evidence, as delineated by U.S. and international research institutes, indicates a concerted effort by Pyongyang to develop and possibly deploy submarines capable of firing ballistic missiles. This development comes amid heightened tensions and rigorous sanctions levied by Washington following North Korea’s provocations, including the notorious hacking incident against Sony Pictures.
The U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, through its website 38 North, has reported an upgrading of facilities at Sinpo, an east coast site in North Korea where a missile-testing facility is located. According to the analysis by Joe Bermudez, an expert on satellite imagery and North Korea’s military, there has been significant preparation for a robust naval construction program. On December 18, imagery revealed a submarine with a conspicuous rectangular opening in its conning tower, which could suggest the existence of one or two missile launch tubes. While the type of missile remains unclear, the implications of such a capability are far-reaching, extending the North Korean threat to South Korea, Japan, and U.S. bases in East Asia.
Adding to the concerns, a ceremony on September 6, 2023, unveiled a new ballistic missile submarine—the Sinpo-C class SSB—indicating a move towards a credible submarine-launched ballistic missile capability. This vessel, named the Hero Kim Kun Ok, embodies the second phase of North Korea’s submarine expansion plans. Subsequent satellite imagery pointed to the start of a new submarine construction campaign with hull components resembling those of the Sinpo-C class detected at Sinpo South Shipyard. This discovery suggests that North Korea is not only enhancing its existing fleet but potentially expanding it.
The strategic implications of this development are underscored by the comparative stealth and unpredictability of submarine-launched missiles, which could be harder to detect prior to launch compared to land-based alternatives. While experts acknowledge that North Korea’s submarines may be outdated and vulnerable to detection and attack, the creation of missile-launch capable submarines would significantly augment Pyongyang’s military threat.
In an audacious display of military ambition, North Korea confirmed a test of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile dubbed the Pukguksong-3. The successful launch was lauded as a milestone, heralding a “new phase in containing the outside forces’ threat to (North Korea) and further bolstering its military muscle for self-defense.” This development drew condemnation and concern from the international community, with Japan, South Korea, and the United States urging North Korea to abide by United Nations Security Council resolutions and refrain from escalating tensions. The test, which coincided with Japan reporting a projectile landing within its exclusive economic zone, served to heighten the security anxieties in the region.
The advancements in North Korea’s maritime capabilities come amidst a complex international security environment, with the United States and its allies responding to multiple challenges across the Indo-Pacific region. These developments underscore the ongoing need for vigilance and robust military readiness in the face of unpredictable actions by North Korea—a nation that continues to prioritize its military capabilities, often at the expense of international norms and diplomatic relations.
Relevant articles:
– North Korea appears to be building new submarine for attacks, research group says , The Straits Times, 05/10/2024
– Sinpho South Shipyard: Indications of New Submarine Construction, 38 North, 05/08/2024
– North Korea confirms new submarine-launched missile, Yahoo Movies Canada, 05/07/2024
– Access to Northern Territory can be a military asset for Japan, The Strategist, 05/10/2024
– United States nuclear weapons, 2024, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 05/07/2024