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    Shrinking US Submarine Fleet Raises Strategic and Industrial Base Concerns

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    The recent developments in the US Navy’s submarine fleet strategy and procurement have raised eyebrows among lawmakers and industry experts. Seeking to adhere to the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 that capped defense spending, the Navy released a Fiscal Year 2025 budget that wants to buy six battle force ships and decommission 19. The service elected to buy one Virginia-class submarine instead of the usual two attack boats it purchases.

    Lawmakers expressed their apprehension during a House Armed Services seapower and projection forces subcommittee hearing. Ranking member Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) contested the Navy’s assumptions and argued the purchase reduction would take $1 billion out of the program, with limited benefits to many companies in the industrial base. “a lot of the other pieces of the submarine that are funded through just the full funding of any vessel may not be in that bucket of advanced procurement,” Joe said.

    The Navy’s budget request of $7.3 billion for the Virginia-class program includes a significant sum intended for future procurements in FY 2026 and FY 2027. However, the focus on advanced procurement does not extend to all supply chain actors, especially those not engaged in long-lead items. Nickolas Guertin, the Navy acquisition chief, acknowledged the need to examine how to assist these other industry segments.

    The potential repercussions extend beyond the industrial base to strategic alliances such as the AUKUS agreement. The commitment from Australia, a key US ally, depends on the US Navy’s ability to supply Virginia-class attack submarines. The present procurement strategy could jeopardize this international confidence, as subcommittee chairman Rep. Trent Kelly remarked, “Reducing our order from two boats to one in this year’s budget does not inspire confidence, nor does it forecast stability to our industry partners and allies.”

    In the broader context of Navy readiness, the situation at shipyards is equally troubling. The Government Accountability Office’s director of defense capabilities and management pointed out that shipyard conditions are a critical readiness concern, with less than 40 percent of Navy ships completing availability repairs on time.

    Moreover, the operational demands on the fleet are incessant. Admiral James Kilby, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Readiness panels, noted the challenges in repair and maintenance, particularly concerning the aging propulsion systems of amphibious ships like USS Boxer.

    Chair Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) said in his opening statement that delays in maintenance and repair in public and private shipyards are having a direct impact on readiness. The Navy has announced it is investigating the causes of the failure on Boxer from either materials, parts or installation.

    Against this backdrop of a constrained naval shipbuilding budget and readiness concerns, the argument for diversifying the submarine fleet gains traction. Some experts advocate for the introduction of diesel-powered submarines, which are less costly and quicker to produce, to augment the nuclear-powered fleet. This proposal aligns with historical precedents of mixed fleets and could offer a more budget-friendly approach to maintaining sea control in contested regions without straining financial resources.

    Relevant articles:
    Navy’s Single Sub Buy Plan Raises Concerns with Congress, Defense News, 05/09/2024
    GAO Tells Senate Panel U.S. Shipyards Are Major Readiness Concern, USNI News, 05/07/2024
    Aircraft Carriers Are Floating Coffins: The Navy Needs Diesel Attack Submarines, The National Interest Online, 05/06/2024

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