In a stark warning that has heightened global concerns, Iran has made it clear that it might reconsider its nuclear doctrine and possibly pursue the development of nuclear weapons if it perceives an existential threat, particularly from Israel. Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, articulated this alarming shift in a statement reported by Iran’s Student News Network, saying, “We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb, but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine.” This pronouncement is a marked change from Iran’s long-held stance that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, as echoed by Khamenei’s fatwa and repeated statements declaring nuclear weapons as “haram” (religiously forbidden).
The potential doctrinal change comes on the heels of escalating tensions with Israel, including a direct confrontation last month that saw Iran launch around 300 missiles and drones at Israeli targets, which was a retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike in Damascus. Though the bulk of the barrage was intercepted, the incident marked a significant escalation and stoked fears of a broader regional conflict. Iran’s deterrence stance has been brought further into question following remarks by senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials. These have suggested that persistent Israeli threats could push Tehran to “review its nuclear doctrine and deviate from its previous considerations.”
Iran’s nuclear capabilities have long been under scrutiny, with the country enriching uranium up to 60 percent purity—a significant step toward weapons-grade levels. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has flagged Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium as having reached quantities over the limits set by the 2015 nuclear accord, further complicating the international community’s efforts to mediate and bring Iran back into compliance.
The collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, following the withdrawal of the United States in 2018 and the subsequent reinstatement of harsh economic sanctions, has severely strained relations. Efforts by the European Union to mediate have yet to yield a resolution, with Iran demanding relief from sanctions in exchange for its full compliance.
Meanwhile, the IAEA has criticized Iran for reduced cooperation and transparency regarding its nuclear program. Rafael Grossi, the chief of the IAEA, expressed frustration over the “completely unsatisfactory” cooperation from Tehran following his visit where talks were held to discuss these matters. Grossi appealed for Iran to implement “very practical and tangible measures” to accelerate cooperation, underlining the importance of IAEA inspections and monitoring.
The international community remains deeply concerned over the potential for Iran to shift its nuclear posture. The rhetoric coming from Tehran indicates a growing impatience and a willingness to consider all options in the face of what it perceives as aggressive posturing and existential threats, particularly from Israel.
Relevant articles:
– Iran says it will change nuclear doctrine and build bombs if existence threatened, timesofisrael.com, 05/10/2024
– Iran warns it will change nuclear doctrine if ‘existence threatened’, Al Jazeera English, 05/09/2024
– Iran threatens to build nuclear weapons, WORLD News Group, 05/09/2024
– Iran warns it will change ‘nuclear doctrine’ if threatened by Israel, Al-Monitor, 05/09/2024
– Iranian top officials hint that Tehran could go nuclear, Semafor, 05/09/2024