The United States, driven by a complex web of geopolitical interests and moral imperatives, finds itself increasingly entangled in the security dynamics of Ukraine, a nation persistently grappling with the specter of Russian aggression.
The recent proposal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a security guarantee from the United States raises profound questions about the implications of such a commitment. Various European allies, including France and Germany, have already pledged ten-year security commitments, painting a picture of collective Western resolve. However, the potential pitfalls of this enduring support may be far-reaching, perhaps steering the US down the precarious path toward a ‘forever war’ scenario.
The United States, with its legislators occasionally veering towards promises of eternal support, stands at a crossroads. Committing to Ukraine’s total victory over Russia without considering the feasibility could prove detrimental to Ukrainian prospects and the broader geostrategic landscape. Eric Gomez, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, underscores this concern, emphasizing the finite nature of Washington’s military resources.
The latest aid package, totaling $61 billion, is unlikely to decisively tilt the outcome of the war, according to Alexander Hill, a professor of military history at the University of Calgary. The support may at best bolster Ukraine’s defenses and forestall Russian advances in the short term. However, the logistical complexities involved cast doubt on the aid’s immediate impact, especially in terms of Ukraine reclaiming territory from Russian control.
Russia, meanwhile, has oriented its economy towards the war effort, with defense spending surging to an estimated 7.5 percent of GDP and industrial production growing by 3.5 percent in 2023, despite Western efforts to throttle it. This economic mobilization has translated into a widening gap in warfighting capabilities between Russia and Ukraine. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, astutely points out that the current aid package should be treated by all parties as potentially the last, urging pragmatic planning for the future.
Diplomacy emerges as an indispensable tool under these circumstances. Kiev, with its continued independence throughout the conflict, has already achieved a significant victory against Moscow’s initial objective. A Ukrainian embrace of neutrality could be pivotal in any future peace agreement, reminiscent of Finland’s successful model of neutrality that facilitated decades of prosperity before joining NATO.
The United States is very secure, thanks to the large oceans on its west and east sides, and peaceful neighbors to the north and south. The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War is tragic, but poses minimal security risks for the United States. Instead of escalating tensions in Europe, promoting diplomatic efforts between Ukraine and Russia, sharing responsibilities with capable allies, and redirecting attention to more important issues will benefit the United States in pursuing its own interests.
Relevant articles:
– U.S.-Ukraine Security Entanglement Risks Forever War , The American Conservative, 05/19/2024
– Confronting Another Axis? History, Humility, and Wishful Thinking, Texas National Security Review, 05/16/2024
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