On May 14, 2024, the Ukrainian Military carried out attacks on Russian military targets in Crimea. Initial reports indicate that parts of an SA-21 Air Defence missile system at Belbek Airfield were destroyed, including a GRAVE STONE radar and launchers. Furthermore, reports suggest that at least two MiG-31BMFOXHOUND C aircraft were also destroyed on the ground.
This marks the fourth instance in the past month where Russian Air Defence in Crimea has faced losses, with the Ukrainian Armed Forces previously conducting successful operations against the Ai-Petri Air Defence Radar site on May 12, 2024, and at Dzhankoy airfield on April 16, 2024, and April 29, 2024. These successive strikes have significantly weakened Russia’s ability to protect the airspace around Crimea, showcasing Ukraine’s capacity to disrupt Russian Air Defence activities.
Moreover, the assault obliterated at least two MiG-31BM FOXHOUND C aircraft on the ground. This strike, as noted in the intelligence review, marks the fourth occasion within the last month that Ukrainian forces have successfully compromised Russian air defences in Crimea.
The cumulative effect of these Ukrainian operations appears to be a significant degradation of Russia’s ability to protect the airspace over Crimea, as well as a noteworthy display of Ukraine’s capability to influence Russian Air Defence strategies. It is “highly likely” that in response, Russia will need to disperse air assets to enhance their survival chances or risk further losses, as well as relocate air defence systems from other regions. The inevitable consequence of this will likely be an increase in the operational tempo of Russian fighter aircraft patrols, which are expected to experience heightened maintenance issues due to the escalated sortie rates.
These strategic setbacks for Russia come at a time when Ukrainian forces are facing a critical phase on the frontline, as per the latest war reports. Ukrainian military personnel are calling for more ammunition to sustain their defences against relentless Russian advances. The urgency for more firepower is underscored by the reduction in daily shell firing from Ukrainian artillery due to shortages, despite the expedited efforts by the United States to rush ammunition and weapons following the approval of a substantial aid package.
As Ukrainian forces adapt to the evolving battlefield conditions, UK intelligence assessments on the recent successes of Ukraine’s military actions in Crimea provide a glimpse into the resilience of Ukrainian tactics. This intelligence analysis further underscores the changing nature of the conflict, with Ukraine demonstrating a capacity to strategically target and undermine key Russian military installations.
While Ukrainian forces continue to experience pressure in the east, particularly around the strategic city of Chasiv Yar, the impact of their actions in Crimea indicates a level of sophistication and determination in their military conduct. Colonel Pavlo Palisa of Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanised Brigade acknowledges the challenging times ahead but emphasises the importance of inflicting heavy costs on the adversary quickly.
Relevant articles:
– British Defence Intelligence Update Ukraine 18 May 2024 , Kyiv Post, 05/18/2024
– UK intelligence assesses impact of Ukraine’s recent successful attacks in Crimea, Ukrainska Pravda, 05/18/2024
– Ukraine war latest: Russian forces take control of village in Kharkiv region – defence ministry, Sky News, 05/18/2024
– How Russia has advanced in Kharkiv despite warnings attack was coming, The Guardian, 05/16/2024
– Russia to expel UK defence attache in a tit-for-tat move, Al Jazeera English, 05/16/2024
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