The skies are becoming increasingly populated with a different kind of bird – one made of metal, circuits, and a formidable presence in modern warfare: drones. In a world where technology is advancing at a breakneck pace, the militarization of drones presents both opportunities and challenges that are shaping the future of conflicts around the globe.
In June, the incident where the United States intercepted two Iranian-made armed drones in Syria highlighted a new norm in international conflicts.
The drone proliferation is not exclusive to powerful nations. Over ninety countries and numerous non-state actors now possess unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These drones are being sent into contested or sovereign spaces, altering traditional notions of engagement and escalating conflicts in ways previously unimagined.
Notably, research from the Center for a New American Security found that survey respondents, including U.S. elites, the American general public, and the Indian general public, were more inclined to risk drones and to shoot down enemy drones compared to manned aircraft. This reflects a collective perception that downing drones is less escalatory, indicating how drones may be creating a new rung on the ladder of conflict escalation.
Drones are not just instruments of territorial provocation. They bring a spectrum of military advantages, including lower operational costs, greater endurance, reduced human risk, and increased flexibility. These attributes are revolutionizing surveillance, reconnaissance, target acquisition, and strike missions. The transformative effect of drones on warfare is undeniable, as they are becoming more capable, precise, and central to military operations.
Drones may enable more decentralized, networked warfare and introduce novel combat scenarios. The blurring of war and peace lines is another concern, as drones could be employed for strikes in non-warring states. They also pose complex challenges in controlling borders and airspace due to the ability to launch attacks from any location.
As pointed out by Paul Scharre, a senior fellow and director of the Technology and National Security Program, decision-makers should engage in war games and tabletop exercises to navigate the unpredictable waters of drone-infused conflict scenarios.
Relevant articles:
– The Coming Drone Wars: A Headache in the Making for American Foreign Policy, The National Interest
– The Impact of Drones on Future of Military Warfare, inti.asia
– Articles & Multimedia, Center for a New American Security
– Articles & Multimedia, Center for a New American Security