Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has raised alarms over Russia’s covert operations – a “shadow war” – against Western nations, calling for a collective and coordinated response to Moscow’s subversive activities. Her stark warning comes amid a rise in sabotage, electronic warfare, and espionage attributed to Russia, as the war in Ukraine swings in Moscow’s favor, prompting heightened defenses across Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Poland.
Kallas’s concerns are not unfounded. A series of disturbing incidents across Europe have hinted at a larger pattern of Russian interference. In Poland, for example, Prime Minister Donald Tusk revealed the arrest of at least nine individuals suspected of beatings and arson directed by Russian secret services. In Estonia itself, a university professor has been arrested on espionage charges, and 13 people were detained over attacks believed to be orchestrated by Russian military intelligence.
The incidents are seen as part of a broader strategy by the Kremlin, employing hybrid warfare tactics that go beyond conventional military engagement. These strategies include cyberattacks, election interference, disinformation, and the targeting of individuals opposed to President Vladimir Putin. As Kallas put it, the West must have a “serious discussion of a coordinated approach.” “How far do we let them go on our soil?” she urged.
Western officials and experts acknowledge that many Russian intelligence operatives are already sanctioned, but suggest that Moscow is shifting tactics. In lieu of direct involvement, the Kremlin is purportedly outsourcing operations to a motley crew of intermediaries—ranging from local criminals to disillusioned youth—recruited on platforms as ubiquitous as video gaming networks and social media. This approach complicates efforts to trace these activities back to Russia and makes it challenging to demonstrate a direct connection between seemingly isolated events.
The outsourcing of espionage and sabotage has placed civilians at risk and led to unintended consequences. A chilling example is the case of Bulgarian investigative journalist Christo Grozev, who was targeted following his work exposing Russian intelligence operations. A former Austrian intelligence officer was arrested for allegedly supplying Grozev’s address to Russian intelligence, leading to a break-in at his home. Such incidents underscore the personal risks faced by those who challenge the Russian state.
A coordinated response from Western nations is hindered by the lack of a collective mechanism to deal with these hybrid threats. Estonian officials advocate for the European Union to take more decisive action, including limiting visas for Russian envoys and implementing separate sanctions to counter such threats. Kallas also emphasizes the importance of sharing information about these activities openly and among allies.
The response Estonia seeks involves not just punitive measures but also preventative ones. By naming and shaming individuals involved in these operations, it reduces their anonymity and the security that comes with it. Moreover, sanctions and restricted travel and study opportunities might deter younger Russians from joining intelligence services.
The underlying motive, according to Kallas and other Estonian officials, is Russia’s ambition to “sow fear” and weaken Western support for Kyiv. Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of Estonia’s Foreign Ministry, further argues that Putin intends to use every available tool to “undermine our unity, collapse our policy and destroy the collective West, as we know it, as a functioning body.”
Relevant articles:
– Russia Is Waging a Shadow War on the West That Needs a Collective Response, Estonian Leader Says, Military, 05/22/2024
– Russia waging shadow war on West: Estonia PM, Euronews, 05/22/2024
– Russia is waging a shadow war on the West that needs a collective response, Estonian leader says, The Associated Press, 05/22/2024
– Russia is waging a shadow war on the West that needs a collective response, Estonian leader says, Oil City Derrick, 05/22/2024
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