Fires have erupted at the Belbek airfield in Crimea following an overnight missile attack on May 15, amid heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The attack, presumed to be orchestrated by Ukrainian forces, targeted a key Russian airbase in the strategically significant peninsula. This incident follows other recent high-profile strikes in the region, intensifying the ongoing conflict.
Satellite imagery from March 31 had depicted 24 Russian aircraft and six helicopters stationed at Belbek, with subsequent analyses suggesting the strike focused on the MiG-31 fighter jets. “If we compare these images with the map of fires on the airfield after the strike, it can be assumed that ATACMS could have primarily targeted the MiG-31s,” noted the military portal Defence Express, while emphasizing that the satellite images are over two weeks old.
NASA’s FIRMS fire monitoring system corroborated these assessments, indicating that the fires post-attack were concentrated in the southern part of the airfield. This alignment with the initial satellite data adds credence to the belief that high-value aircraft were indeed targeted.
OSINT expert @Osinttechnical highlighted on social media that the nighttime attack resulted in fires near critical areas of the airfield, including the runway and aircraft parking zones. The Crimean Wind monitoring channel also provided satellite imagery pinpointing the ignition sources, confirming the precision of the missile strike.
The so-called “governor of Sevastopol,” Mikhail Razvozhayev, had earlier claimed on May 13 that Russian forces “repelled a massive attack” on Sevastopol. This latest development raises questions about the efficacy of Russian defenses in the region, especially considering the previous drone and missile strikes on other strategic targets such as the airport in Berdyansk.
The potential use of ATACMS missiles, known for their long-range and precision capabilities, to strike Belbek represents a significant tactical maneuver by Ukrainian forces. These missiles, equipped with either submunitions or larger warheads, have previously been employed to target other high-value assets, including ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The implications of such strikes extend beyond immediate damage, as they challenge the operational security and logistical support of Russian forces in occupied Crimea.
Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, underscored the broader strategic implications, noting that effective use of ATACMS against Russian warships in Sevastopol could severely compromise the utility of the base for Russian operations. Military consultant Nunu Felix echoed these concerns, pointing out that Russian defenses, including the S-400 systems, have been unable to intercept these advanced missiles.
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– Ukrainian forces possibly hit Russian jets in Crimea ATACMS strike, Yahoo Singapore News, 05/20/2024
– Russia likely lost its last cruise missile carrier in occupied Crimea — online.ua, News.online.ua, 05/20/2024
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