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    Tragic Mosaic of Factors: Untangling the Causes Behind Iranian President Raisi’s Helicopter Crash

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    In the murky aftermath of a helicopter crash that took the lives of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and several other officials, analyses suggest a confluence of factors may have led to the tragic incident.

    Retired Group Capt VN Jha, speaking to a news editor, offered insights into the possible reasons behind the crash, citing “technical error and bad weather” as likely contributors. He drew parallels to the crash that killed Chief of Defence Staff Gen Bipin Rawat in 2021, noting the perils of flying in inclement weather and the dangers of spatial disorientation.

    Jha pointed out the Bell 212’s single-engine design, which leaves little room for error or recovery in the event of engine trouble, especially when faced with the unpredictable updrafts and downdrafts prevalent in mountainous terrains. He hypothesized that Raisi’s helicopter might have been caught in a downdraft, making recovery at high speeds with adequate passengers nearly impossible. Jha’s comments suggest a “judgment error” by the pilot, there was also a drop in the engine power.

    Iran has flown Bell helicopters extensively since the shah’s era. But aircraft in Iran face a shortage of parts because of Western sanctions, and often fly without safety checks. Against that backdrop, former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sought to blame the United States for the crash. However, this accusation has been swiftly labeled “baseless” by U.S. officials, who maintain that every nation bears the responsibility to ensure the safety and reliability of its equipment.

    Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst and consultant, said Iran likely is tapping the black market for parts, but questioned whether Iran has the maintenance skills to keep older helicopters flying safely. There are 15 Bell 212 helicopters with an average age of 35 years currently registered in Iran that could be in active use or in storage, according to aviation data firm Cirium.

    Amidst the turmoil, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has named a vice president as caretaker, and insisted the government was in control.

    Relevant articles:
    Aged machine, bad weather led to Iranian President Raisi’s chopper crash: IAF expert , News9 LIVE, 05/22/2024
    Iran helicopter crash: Mohammad Mokhber becomes acting president, The Associated Press, 05/21/2024
    Raisi helicopter crash: Some in Iran claim US sanctions to blame but the truth may be more complicated, CNN, 05/21/2024
    What might have caused the helicopter crash that killed Iran’s president, NPR, 05/21/2024
    The Latest | Iran’s president, foreign minister and others die in helicopter crash, ABC News, 05/21/2024

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