The war in Ukraine progresses into its third year, the focus has shifted to Ukraine’s potential strategy for victory. The $60 billion now flowing into Ukraine will help correct these disparities, providing Kyiv an opportunity to stop Russia’s offensive.
The aid is not only a material boon but also a psychological uplift for the Ukrainians, giving Ukrainians newfound confidence that they will not be abandoned by their most important partner. But the aid package alone cannot answer the central question facing Ukraine: how to win the war. What Ukraine needs is not just more assistance but also a theory of victory—something that some of its partners have studiously avoided discussing.
The United States has never planned out its support for Kyiv beyond a few months at a time, even as Congress mandated the provision of a long-term U.S. strategy for its support of Ukraine as a part of the aid bill. It has focused on short-term maneuvers, such as the much-anticipated 2023 counteroffensive. Until end of last year, U.S. officials refrained from even using the term “victory” in public.
Ukraine’s objectives have been unequivocally set forth: reclaiming its internationally recognized borders, repatriating prisoners, and establishing lasting security arrangements. ut Kyiv and its partners are not yet on the same page regarding how these might be achieved.
Economic and informational warfare are equally crucial fronts in this struggle. The West is encouraged to mount a more aggressive sanctions campaign against Russia and to conduct an information campaign that hammers home the war’s catastrophic toll on Russian society.
These measures could lead to significant internal pressure on Vladimir Putin’s regime, which is already showing signs of fragility. If Ukraine can regain the initiative and launch successful counteroffensives, the ensuing military setbacks could precipitate a political crisis for Putin, whose grip on power is deeply intertwined with the perception of victory in Crimea and other occupied regions.
Relevant articles:
– A Theory of Victory for Ukraine: With the Right Support and Approach, Kyiv Can Still WinWith the Right Support and … , Foreign Affairs Magazine, 05/22/2024
– Foreign Affairs on Ukraine’s theory of victory, Ukrainian World Congress, 05/21/2024
– Ukraine war latest: Armed ship destroyed in Crimea, Kyiv says; controversial US television host launches show in Russia, Sky News, 05/21/2024
– The five fronts Ukraine is defending with troops and weapons pushed to the limit, EL PAÍS USA, 05/20/2024
– Macron says ‘nothing ruled out,’ including using Western troops, to stop Russia winning Ukraine war, Yahoo News Australia, 05/20/2024
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