Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has issued a stark warning about the increasing threat of Russia’s “shadow war” against Western nations, urging a collective and coordinated response to combat the multifaceted dangers posed by Moscow.
Speaking after returning from the annual Spring Storm military exercises, Kallas highlighted the range of clandestine operations allegedly orchestrated by Russia, including sabotage, electronic warfare, and espionage. Estonia, which shares a border with Russia, has experienced a surge in these covert activities, all attributed to Moscow’s strategic maneuvers.
“As the war in Ukraine turns in Russia’s favor, defenses are being bolstered in the front-line nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as in Finland and Poland,” Kallas noted, emphasizing the broader geographical impact of Russia’s tactics.
The Estonian leader’s concerns are echoed by other regional figures. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda recently urged vigilance, revealing that he had “information that acts of sabotage can happen again.” Similarly, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk disclosed the arrest of at least nine individuals suspected of carrying out violent acts under the direction of Russia’s secret services.
“What I would like to see is the recognition that these are not isolated events,” Kallas stated. “Second, that we share information about this amongst ourselves. Third, make it as public as we can.”
Kallas stressed that Russia is leveraging nonmilitary strategies, including cyberattacks, election interference, disinformation, and assaults on opponents of President Vladimir Putin. These hybrid tactics are particularly concerning given the upcoming elections in several Western nations, which officials believe could spur an increase in such activities.
Citing an incident involving an intelligence warning and a subsequent fire at a European warehouse, Kallas underscored the necessity of a “serious discussion of a coordinated approach” to these threats. “How far do we let them go on our soil?” she questioned.
Estonia has long taken a proactive stance against Russian espionage. This year alone, a university professor was arrested on charges of spying for Moscow, 13 people were detained over attacks allegedly organized by Russian military intelligence, and Russian jamming of GPS signals disrupted flights between Finland and Tartu.
The situation is not confined to Estonia. The United Kingdom expelled Russia’s defense attaché in May following accusations that two British men colluded with Russian intelligence to set fire to a London warehouse. Similarly, Germany saw the arrest of two German-Russian nationals accused of plotting attacks on military sites.
Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, reflecting on his experience with a major cyberattack in 2007, remarked, “People are afraid of decisive action, and the absence of decisive action basically tempts bad actors to keep pushing their luck.” He further cautioned, “Russian officials will push their luck until something bad happens, but they won’t pay the consequence. We will.”
Adding to the complexity, Estonian officials and security experts have observed a troubling trend of Russia outsourcing attacks to locals, often recruited through video gaming platforms and social media. This tactic not only obscures the connection to Moscow but also complicates efforts to identify and thwart these operations.
The case of Bulgarian journalist Christo Grozev, who exposed Russian intelligence’s role in high-profile poisonings, illustrates the risks of this outsourcing. Grozev’s address was provided to Russian intelligence by an Austrian officer, leading to a burglary attempt on his home. “Imagine if my son had walked out,” Grozev recounted, highlighting the personal dangers faced by those targeted.
Grozev and other experts advocate for enhanced intelligence sharing and the establishment of a “proactive international working task force” to address foreign influence operations.
Estonia is pushing for more stringent measures, including a Czech initiative to limit visas for Russian diplomats and separate EU sanctions to counter hybrid threats. These steps aim to dissuade local collaborators and organized crime figures from aiding Russian operations.
Jonatan Vseviov, Estonia’s Foreign Ministry secretary-general, stressed the importance of unity: “Putin wants to use every tool available, including the shadowy attacks, to undermine our unity, collapse our policy and destroy the collective West, as we know it, as a functioning body.”
Relevant articles:
– Russia is waging a shadow war on the West that needs a collective response, Estonian leader says , Yahoo News UK, 05/22/2024
– Russia is waging a shadow war on the West that needs a collective response, Estonian leader says, KSLTV, 05/22/2024
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