Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has sounded an alarm over what she describes as Russia’s escalating “shadow war” against the West. This campaign, characterized by sabotage, electronic warfare, and espionage, marks a critical evolution in geopolitical tensions, particularly as the war in Ukraine seems to be swinging in Moscow’s favor.
Having just returned from NATO’s Spring Storm military exercises, Kallas emphasized that her country, bordering Russia, has been witnessing a notable rise in covert hostile activities attributed to the Kremlin. This sentiment is echoed across other front-line nations such as Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Poland, which are bolstering their defenses in response.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has called for heightened vigilance, noting on social media that he had information suggesting “acts of sabotage can happen again.” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also reported recent arrests linked to Russia’s secret services, involving nationals from Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland, allegedly orchestrated through criminal networks.
Despite the visible patterns of aggression, Kallas pointed out that not all attacks are seen as interconnected. This divergence in perception persists despite NATO’s assertion that Moscow is intensifying its campaign against the alliance. The Kremlin, however, has dismissed these allegations.
As Western sanctions have cornered many Russian intelligence operatives, experts suggest the Kremlin is pivoting to hybrid warfare tactics—combining cyberattacks, election meddling, disinformation, and physical assaults on adversaries of President Vladimir Putin. With crucial elections on the horizon in Western nations, officials anticipate an escalation in these activities, prompting calls for more robust countermeasures.
Kallas recounted an incident where an intelligence agency warned a European country about a potential Russian threat to one of its warehouses. When a fire did break out subsequently, officials hesitated to attribute it to Russia, reflecting broader uncertainties in identifying and responding to these multifaceted threats.
Highlighting Estonia’s proactive stance, Kallas remarked, “What I would like to see is the recognition that these are not isolated events.” She advocates for greater information sharing among nations and making such incidents public to foster collective vigilance.
Estonia’s reputation for aggressively tracking espionage activities is well-regarded, with the country frequently seizing more Russian agents per capita than other European nations. Kusti Salm, permanent secretary at Estonia’s Defense Ministry, implied that other nations could enhance their efforts, noting, “It is not very plausible that there’s such a large pool of agents in Estonia that makes them easier to catch.”
Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves pointed to a lack of decisive action from some nations due to economic interests with Russia. He warned, “People are afraid of decisive action, and the absence of decisive action basically tempts bad actors to keep pushing their luck.”
The decentralized and often outsourced nature of these attacks complicates the identification of direct Russian involvement, a trend seen in the case of Bulgarian journalist Christo Grozev, who was targeted by Russian operatives through intermediaries.
Despite the historical blame on Russia for various attacks across Europe, Estonian officials and security experts argue that there is no collective mechanism to address them effectively, urging the EU to adopt more coordinated strategies. Kallas underscores the routine use of diplomatic cover by Russian spies and supports initiatives to limit visas for Russian envoys to their posted countries, which could hinder their operations within the EU.
Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of Estonia’s Foreign Ministry, stated that Putin employs every available tool, including shadowy attacks, to “undermine our unity, collapse our policy and destroy the collective West, as we know it, as a functioning body.”
Relevant articles:
– Russia is waging a shadow war on the West that needs a collective response, Estonian leader says, apnews.com, 05/23/2024
– Russia waging shadow war on West: Estonia PM, Yahoo News UK, 05/22/2024
– Russia waging ‘shadow war’ on West, says Estonian leader, Express & Star, 05/22/2024
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