The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has transcended regional boundaries, escalating into a matter of global security with profound implications for the geopolitical landscape. A decisive victory for Ukraine is not just a matter of national sovereignty but a crucial determinant for maintaining international stability.
Russian President Vladimir Putin rules a nation and threatens the world. He does so by inculcating fear and luxuriating in indifference. America cannot be indifferent to this scourge, for Russian success in Ukraine will place Putin at the heart of an axis composed of Russia and Iran.
A Russian victory would also set a dangerous precedent for territorial expansionism, potentially encouraging other autocrats to pursue aggressive policies. “Autocrats around the world would view Putin’s triumph as a sign of unprecedented Western weakness and an open invitation to pursue their own expansionist agendas,” warns an expert analysis.
Ukraine’s ability to repel Russian advances hinges significantly on sustained and decisive Western support. The delays and half-measures that have characterized much of the aid so far have been inadequate. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has highlighted this issue, arguing that some Western leaders “are afraid of Russia losing the war” because this would lead to “unpredictable geopolitical consequences.”
However, this hesitance only serves to embolden Russia. “Rather than scaring themselves into self-deterrence with nightmare scenarios of future Russian collapse, Western leaders should be laser-focused on the far more immediate dangers posed by Russian victory,” notes another analysis.
The flow of Western aid has been critical but insufficiently strategic. Recent measures, such as the approval of a $61 billion aid package by the U.S. Congress. However, the long-term security of Ukraine and by extension, Europe, requires a more comprehensive approach. “U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s announcement in Kyiv on May 14 that the United States plans to sign a ten-year bilateral security agreement with Ukraine is a step in the right direction,” according to a detailed study.
Moreover, achieving a durable peace will be impossible without a clear vision for Ukraine’s long-term security. This involves not just immediate military support but also the development of a strategic framework for Ukraine’s future force, including systematic military planning and predictable Western support over an extended period.
A Russian victory would not just be a setback for Ukraine but a strategic defeat for the global order. “By supporting Ukraine, we prevent a larger European war that may involve America’s military due to our Article 5 treaty commitment to the integrity of NATO member states,” emphasizes a geopolitical analysis.
Relevant articles:
– Global Security Mandates Victory in Ukraine , The National Interest Online, 05/23/2024
– Ukraine Needs More Than Crisis Management, Foreign Affairs Magazine, 05/22/2024
– Ukraine’s Western allies should fear Russian victory not Russian defeat, Atlantic Council, 05/21/2024
– Ukraine Aid Packages Leave Many Unanswered Questions, Heritage.org, 05/21/2024
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