The Russian satellite Cosmos 2553 has recently garnered significant attention due to its enigmatic behavior and potential implications for space weaponization. Launched in February 2022, the satellite has been the subject of intense scrutiny by independent experts and U.S. officials, who suspect it may be part of Russia’s efforts to develop a nuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon.
Cosmos 2553 operates in a circular orbit approximately 2,000 kilometers above Earth, at the higher edge of the low Earth orbit (LEO) belt. According to Darren McKnight, a senior technical fellow at LeoLabs, this specific orbital region is notably empty, containing only one defunct Russian satellite and ten non-operational American commercial satellites from the late 1990s. McKnight suggests this orbit was chosen to facilitate experimentation without interference from other satellites, making it more difficult to monitor.
The United States has not officially claimed that Cosmos 2553 carries a nuclear weapon. However, there is a confluence of circumstantial evidence and expert opinions that raise concerns. On May 3, Mallory Stewart, a senior State Department arms control official, made cryptic remarks about a satellite in an “unusual” orbit. While not explicitly naming Cosmos 2553, she mentioned its orbit “was not high enough of a radiation environment to allow accelerated testing of electronics, as Russia has described the purpose to be.”
Independent experts, including Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute and Pavel Podvig of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, support the theory that the satellite is primarily a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite intended for ground surveillance.
“My best guess right now is that there is an experiment that studies shielding of various electronic equipment. The US IC [Intelligence Community] seems to believe that this equipment has something to do with a nuclear weapon. But it’s nearly impossible to prove or disprove,” Podvig noted.
Any move to place nuclear weapons in space would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits the deployment of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in space. This has led to heightened diplomatic tensions. Russia vetoed a resolution at the United Nations Security Council, proposed by the U.S. and Japan, that reaffirmed the treaty’s provisions and called on all nations to refrain from developing such weapons.
“The United States assesses that Russia is developing a new satellite carrying a nuclear device,” a Department of Defense spokesperson told Vox.
A nuclear detonation in space would be catastrophic, threatening thousands of satellites essential for global communications, scientific research, and national security. A U.S. official described such a detonation as posing a significant threat to satellites “as well as to the vital communications, scientific, meteorological, agricultural, commercial, and national security services we all depend upon.”
The only historical analogue comes from the United States’ Starfish Prime test in 1962, generating an electromagnetic pulse that knocked out streetlights and telecommunications in Hawaii and created a new artificial radiation belt that crippled several satellites.
In addition to Cosmos 2553, the recent launch of Cosmos 2576—a Russian “inspector” satellite trailing a U.S. spy satellite—has escalated concerns. The U.S. Space Command confirmed that the satellite appears to be a counterspace weapon, capable of inspecting and potentially attacking other satellites.
Relevant articles:
– Is Russia’s Cosmos 2553 satellite a test for a future orbital nuclear weapon?, Breaking Defense, 05/23/2024
– How worried should we be about Russia putting a nuke in space?, Vox.com, 05/22/2024
– Russia launched counterspace weapon into orbit, US says, Kyiv Independent, 05/22/2024
– Russia’s ‘inspector’ satellite, space weapon, tailing US spycraft, Interesting Engineering, 05/22/2024
– US assesses Russia launched space weapon in path of American satellite, Yahoo News Australia, 05/21/2024
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