Over 315,000 Russian troops have either been killed, wounded, or captured, with numerous heavy weapon systems also being destroyed.
This development has reduced Russia’s image as a near-peer rival to the United States in conventional terms, even though it still stands as a major nuclear danger.
The Russian military has fought in Ukraine for over two years. In that time, Russian forces achieved little compared to pre-war expectations. While they managed to contain Ukraine’s recent counteroffensives, they failed to defeat a smaller military. Moreover, Western intelligence services estimate that Moscow has lost over 315,000 men killed, wounded, or captured, as well as thousands of heavy weapons systems, such as main battle tanks, aircraft, artillery pieces, infantry fighting vehicles, warships, and helicopters.
In light of these developments, NATO’s response and preparedness have come into sharp focus. According to General Christopher G. Cavoli of U.S. European Command, “Russia will be on track to expand the size of its military,” with plans for a million-strong force. Cavoli also noted that despite the quantity of forces seemingly increasing, “many of the troops are not as high quality” and much of the equipment is older and refurbished. Despite these quality concerns, the reconstitution of Russian forces is happening at a swift pace.
Amid the muscle-flexing, President Vladimir Putin ordered a military exercise simulating the launch of tactical nuclear weapons. This move is widely interpreted as a message to the West, emphasizing Russia’s willingness to deploy its nuclear capability in the face of what it perceives as security threats. The drills involve missile forces in Russia’s Southern Military District and include areas of Ukraine currently under Russian control, as well as Belarus.
As Ukraine continues to resist the Russian advance, particularly in regions like Kharkiv, and successfully targets Russian military assets, the importance of Western military aid becomes ever clearer. The Ukrainian military claims to have destroyed Russia’s last warship armed with cruise missiles stationed on the Crimean peninsula, an area annexed by Russia in 2014. On the diplomatic front, the European Union has taken significant steps, announcing an agreement to use profits earned from frozen Russian assets to provide military support to Ukraine and aid in its reconstruction.
NATO members have reacted differently to the evolving threat. While some, like Estonia, call for a bolder approach, including the possibility of deploying troops to Ukraine for training purposes, others have remained cautious. French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested Europe might need to consider sending troops should Russia break through Ukrainian defenses, a sentiment that raises the stakes for potential direct confrontation.
As NATO grapples with the best course of action, the political will and the military-industrial readiness of its member states will be pivotal in determining the alliance’s ability to respond effectively. General Cavoli has emphasized these factors as key determinants in countering any advantages Russia might have post-conflict. The alliance’s unity and strategic clarity will be tested as it confronts not only the immediate threat in Ukraine but also the broader implications for European and global security.
Relevant articles:
– Russia Is Taking Massive Losses in Ukraine: Still a Military Threat to NATO?, National Intererst, 05/22/2024
– Russia-Ukraine war – latest: Putin orders nuclear weapons drill as Kyiv’s forces ‘inflict maximum casualties’, Yahoo News Australia, 05/21/2024
– A few NATO countries are lobbying the rest to be bolder when it comes to sending their own soldiers to Ukraine, Yahoo Singapore News, 05/20/2024
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