The rise of generative AI, a form of artificial intelligence that can create text or other content in response to user prompts, has sparked a debate about the future of work and the impact of automation on jobs. While some see AI as a tool to enhance human productivity and creativity, others fear that it will replace millions of workers, especially in the fields of programming and writing.
One of the most outspoken voices in this debate is Emad Mostaque, the CEO of Stability AI, a company that created Stable Diffusion, a tool that transforms text into AI-generated art. Mostaque has made some bold predictions about how AI will disrupt the IT outsourcing industry, especially in India, where more than 5 million software programmers are based.
In a call with UBS analysts last week, Mostaque said that most outsourced programmers in India will see their jobs wiped out in the next year or two, as AI technology will drastically reduce the need for them. He contrasted India, where he said most outsourced coders up to level three programmers will be gone, with France, where he said developers will never be fired, due to stronger labor laws and protections.
“If you’re doing a job in front of a computer, and no one ever sees you, then it’s massively impactful, because these models are like really talented grads,” Mostaque said, referring to the capabilities of generative AI tools like ChatGPT and Google’s Bard. These tools have quickly gained popularity since their public launch, and have been used for various purposes, such as writing college-level essays and generating code.
Mostaque’s prediction is supported by a report from Goldman Sachs, which estimates that around 300 million jobs could be affected by generative AI, meaning 18% of work globally could be automated—with more advanced economies heavily impacted than emerging markets. The report also predicts that two-thirds of jobs in the U.S. and Europe “are exposed to some degree of AI automation,” and around a quarter of all jobs could be performed by AI entirely.
A study from the University of Pennsylvania and OpenAI also found that some educated white-collar workers earning up to $80,000 a year are the most likely to be affected by workforce automation, while jobs in agriculture, mining and manufacturing are the least exposed to generative AI. The study said that “jobs that use programming and writing skills are more closely related to GPT’s capabilities.”
However, not everyone is pessimistic about the impact of AI on outsourcing. Some Indian IT firms like TCS are betting big on generative AI, committing to train more than 25,000 engineers on the technology over Microsoft’s Azure Open AI service. TCS’s CEO N. Ganapathy Subramaniam said that the company began taking a “machine-first” approach to project delivery about four years ago and it showed how AI will make an “enormous impact on the way that we operate and the way that we do things.”
Generative AI is not perfect, however. Both OpenAI and Google admit that their programs sometimes give incorrect or biased responses and have other flaws. Therefore, human oversight and intervention may still be needed to ensure quality and accuracy. Moreover, AI may also create new opportunities for workers to reskill and upskill themselves, or to focus on more strategic, value-creating, and personally rewarding tasks. The future of work may not be as bleak as some fear, but it will certainly require adaptation and innovation from all stakeholders.
Relevant articles:
– Most outsourced coders in India will be gone in 2 years due to A.I., Stability AI boss predicts, CNBC, July 18, 2023
– Which Jobs Will AI Replace? These 4 Industries Will Be Heavily Impacted, Forbes, March 30, 2023
– The Future of Jobs in the Era of AI, Boston Consulting Group, March 18, 2023
– The Impact of AI on Jobs: Automation, Outsourcing, and Changing Skill Requirements, IT Voice, April 24, 2023