A leaked document from the German Armed Forces has outlined a scenario where a major conflict between NATO and Russia could become imminent, with events potentially unfolding as early as July 2025. The document, which is purportedly secret and not independently verified, suggests a detailed month-by-month escalation leading to the deployment of NATO troops, including hundreds of thousands of soldiers, and a possible start of war in the summer of 2025.
The scenario, referred to as “Alliance Defense 2025,” indicates that the Bundeswehr is preparing for a potential hybrid attack by Russia on NATO’s eastern flank. It describes a series of events starting with Russian mobilization in February 2024, a spring offensive in Ukraine, and escalating into cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare, mainly in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Further, the document predicts that tensions could peak with Russia moving troops and missiles to Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. This movement could provoke “border conflicts” and “unrests with numerous casualties” in the “Suwalki corridor,” a strategic land bridge connecting the Baltics with the rest of Europe.
The narrative constructed within the document extends to the prospect of Russia leveraging Belarusian support to mirror its 2014 invasion tactics in Ukraine, but this time on NATO territory, particularly after the U.S. elections when America might experience a leadership transition.
Zakharova derided the reported scenario in a post on Telegram. “I read the German ‘secret plan’ leaked into the Bild information gutter. It’s like a mighty horoscope from last year for Pisces in Cancer,” she said.
The scenario concludes with a significant military response from NATO, including the Bundeswehr, with the deployment of significant forces to the eastern flank 30 days after “D-Day.” Yet, the scenario leaves open whether NATO will be able to contain Russia’s actions.
As NATO maintains its treaty under Article 5 that an armed attack on one member is considered an attack on all, prompting a collective response, the alliance’s actions have been measured to provide aid without direct involvement in ongoing conflicts. However, the document underscores the significant military concerns and planning that may be occurring behind the scenes, as tensions with Russia continue to influence international defense strategies.
As the situation develops, NATO members, including the UK, have announced large-scale troop deployments to Eastern Europe as part of their commitment to the alliance and readiness for potential aggression from adversaries. These deployments signify a shift from the post-Cold War “peace dividend” to a new era of “hard-headed realism,” where defense spending and military preparedness are increasingly prioritized.
Relevant articles:
– War between NATO & Russia is imminent, according to secret German Armed Forces document — Bild
– Russia Responds to Report About War With NATO
– Germany is preparing for Putin attack against NATO in 2025: Leaked secret plans reveal step-by-step how Russia will escalate conflict to all-out war in 18 months
– Putin’s ‘step-by-step plan to bring West to brink of WW3’ revealed in leaked intel doc…including date of ‘Day X’ in 2025