As India continues to assert its presence in the South Caucasus, it offers Armenia a significant shift away from its historical reliance on Russian military support. This change comes through arms deals, including SWATHI radars and drones, which reflect India’s long-term regional intentions and demonstrate its rising influence in an area marked by the complex interplay of powers like Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
The landscape of the South Caucasus is experiencing a geopolitical metamorphosis, with India emerging as a key player. While Russia has traditionally been the dominant military partner in the region, the conflict in Ukraine has affected Moscow’s ability to fulfill its obligations, notably its arms supply contract with Armenia. The resulting vacuum has provided India an opportunity to deepen its strategic ties with Armenia, reinforcing Yerevan’s military capabilities amid ongoing pressure from Azerbaijan.
India’s engagement is not limited to military hardware. The two nations are also eyeing the implementation of the Persian Gulf-Black Sea international transport corridor. This project aims to diversify trade routes, connecting Indian markets to the EAEU and EU more efficiently, particularly through Iran and Armenia, bypassing Russia and the congested Suez Canal.
India’s rise in the region aligns with the interests of both Russia and Iran. For Moscow, India’s involvement serves as a complementary force that bolsters the capabilities of Russia’s ally, Armenia, and maintains the regional status quo. Furthermore, India’s investments in Armenia are perceived as a bridge linking the EAEU with India, with negotiations to create a free trade zone ongoing.
Iran, similarly, benefits from India’s presence, as it bolsters Tehran’s role as a pivotal transit country. The collaboration with India on developing the Persian Gulf-Black Sea transport route enhances Iran’s strategic importance and leverages its geographical position. In addition, India’s arms deals with Armenia support Tehran’s aim of preserving the regional balance of power, especially against the backdrop of Azerbaijan’s ties with adversaries like Israel and Pakistan.
Conversely, India’s growing influence poses challenges for Turkey. Ankara’s aspirations to become a significant transit hub and its support for Azerbaijan could be undermined by the strengthening of Armenia through Indian military aid. The Persian Gulf-Black Sea corridor, in particular, competes with Turkey’s own latitudinal routes, potentially reducing Ankara’s intended role in regional connectivity.
The implications of India’s presence in the South Caucasus extend beyond immediate regional concerns. For countries like the United States and the EU, India’s democratic credentials and expanding influence could represent a desirable counterbalance to authoritarian actors in the region. The democratic world might find an ally in India, as it provides an alternative to the often problematic choices between Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
India’s investments in Armenia, particularly in military technology, have made Yerevan an increasingly strategic ally. The sale of the Akash SAM system and the prospective deals for other advanced weaponry solidify this partnership. These moves have positioned India as a democratic beacon and a stabilizing force in a region characterized by shifting allegiances and the waxing influence of Middle Eastern countries.
Relevant articles:
– India in the South Caucasus: Implications for Russia, Iran and Turkey, Российский совет по международным делам, Feb 19, 2024
– India Shows Caucasus Diplomacy Isn’t Just for Russia and Turkey Anymore, American Enterprise Institute, Aug 21, 2023
– India’s Stake in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, The Diplomat :: Asia, Sep 30, 2023
– South Caucasus Turns Away From Russia Toward Middle East, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Feb 8, 2024