In what is shaping up to be an unprecedented scrutiny of electoral integrity, Russia’s recent elections have come under fire with allegations suggesting that up to 22 million votes cast in favor of President Vladimir Putin were falsified. Independent Russian media outlets have brought forth staggering claims supported by a statistical method developed by mathematician Sergey Shpilkin, once celebrated for his electoral research and now labeled a “foreign agent” by the Russian government.
According to the international edition of Novaya Gazeta Europe, a publication now banned within Russia, around 97% of polling station data was analyzed to reveal a significant incidence of “irregular” ballots. This analysis, which used Shpilkin’s method, concluded that the elections were far from the transparent democratic process that would be expected in a free society.
The Central Election Commission officially declared Putin the winner with an astonishing 87.28% of the vote, a result that Western critics and independent observers have decried for the lack of genuine opposition and systemic repression of dissent. Not only were the contenders allowed to run against Putin largely seen as token opposition, but more vocal critics, such as Boris Nadezhdin who spoke out against the conflict in Ukraine, were conveniently excluded from the race on grounds of alleged irregularities in signature collection.
Shpilkin’s algorithmic model, which has received recognition in the past for its accuracy, was employed by Novaya Gazeta Europe and other independent outlets such as Meduza and Important Stories, leading to estimates of falsified votes that represent a substantial portion of the votes Putin officially received. This method assesses the voting patterns and turnout at each station, contrasting them with benchmarks from stations where voting appears genuine. The stark differences uncovered have called the legitimacy of the election results into question.
David Kankiya of the Movement for the Defense of Voters’ Rights (Golos) highlighted the glaring issues at play, stating, “There’s a war going on and zero public oversight,” as well as noting that residents of the occupied Ukrainian territories could vote without needing a Russian passport. Videos suggesting voter intimidation and ballot stuffing have also surfaced, contributing to the mounting evidence against the election’s fairness.
“Whatever result the authorities had decided on, they got it. We’re entering the realm of pure fiction here,” Kankiya continued. The queues outside polling stations on Friday, the day polling stations opened and when citizens were urged to vote most strongly, were actually comprised of people “deprived of their voting rights,” Kankiya said. “Like in the days of the Soviet Union, when you were forced to vote whether you wanted to or not,” he added.
Relevant articles:
– In Russian elections, a vote falsification occurred every second
– ‘Shpilkin method’: Statistical tool gauges voter fraud in Putin landslide, FRANCE 24 English, Wed, 20 Mar 2024 18:31:30 GMT
– The extent of fraud in Russia’s presidential election begins to emerge, Le Monde, Wed, 20 Mar 2024 17:23:12 GMT
– Shpilkin’s Razor: How A Statistical Model Raises Questions About Putin’s Election. Again., Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Tue, 19 Mar 2024 14:59:02 GMT