It might come as a shock to those who visualize cartels solely as underworld enterprises lurking in the shadows of society, but a recent study has thrust the enormity of their influence into the spotlight. The Complexity Science Hub Vienna’s investigation, published in ‘Science,’ found that organized crime groups in Mexico hold the distinction of being the country’s fifth-largest employer. With an estimated 175,000 individuals on their payroll, these cartels have managed to surpass major commercial entities like Pemex and Oxxo in terms of workforce size, only outstripped by corporate giants like Walmart and America Movil.
This staggering revelation wasn’t solely about employment figures. The study, led by former Mexico City police officer Rafael Prieto-Curiel, delves deep into the dynamics of cartel operations, highlighting the alarming rate at which they’re swelling their ranks — recruiting approximately 350 to 370 new members every week. These numbers aren’t just a matter of expansion but also a necessity to offset the significant losses due to violence and imprisonment. The grim toll over a decade shows that 17% of these recruits met their end while a further 20% found themselves behind bars.
Prieto-Curiel’s approach underscores a pivotal strategy to mitigate the escalating violence in Mexico: targeting cartel recruitment. “Neither through the courts nor through the prisons. The only way to reduce violence in Mexico is to cut off cartel recruitment,” asserts the lead researcher. His findings suggest a mathematical certainty that cutting recruitment by half could lead to an 11% reduction in cartel size by 2027. On the flip side, without such intervention, membership could burgeon by 26% within the same timeframe, accompanied by a 40% hike in casualties.
This study paints a holistic picture of cartel demographics as well. Amongst these numerous groups, nearly two in every ten members are part of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, with the Sinaloa Cartel accounting for one in ten. And while these figures are already impressive, they only represent individuals directly involved in violent activities. A legion of auxiliary figures, such as financial handlers responsible for money laundering, aren’t included in these numbers.
The strategy advocated by the research isn’t entirely novel. Valentin Pereda, a professor at the University of Montreal, reinforces this point, “If cartels cannot recruit, then they cannot replace their losses, then they cannot keep fighting each other.”
The recommendations that stem from this study have far-reaching implications. They beckon a departure from the heavy-handed tactics of the past, imploring a shift toward preemptive measures. Eduardo Salcedo Albarán, director of crime research company SciVortex, commends the mathematical model developed by the study as “amazing” and views it as a foundational step towards innovative cartel investigation methodologies. However, Albarán also recognizes the complexities involved in translating these ideas into tangible, real-world solutions.“The hardest part is bringing these ideas to the real world,” he said.
Relevant articles:
– TIL: Cartels are Mexico’s fifth largest employer, making up 175,000 members
– Study reveals organized crime is the fifth-largest employer in Mexico, EL PAÍS USA, Fri, 22 Sep 2023 07:00:00 GMT
– Mexican cartels are fifth-largest employers in the country, study finds, The Guardian, Thu, 21 Sep 2023 07:00:00 GMT
– Mexican cartels rank as nation’s fifth-largest employer: study, The Hill, Thu, 21 Sep 2023 07:00:00 GMT