The Crimea Bridge, formally known as the Kerch Bridge, linking Russia’s Krasnodar region with Crimea—a territory illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014—has been a vital military supply route for Russian forces engaged in the war against Ukraine. However, recent attacks and continued scrutiny reveal a significant shift in its military relevance and the broader strategic impact of the conflict.
Following a series of strikes, notably on July 17, 2023, which saw the partial destruction of the bridge’s road and railway sections, there has been a conspicuous absence of military cargo transportation via the bridge. The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) has released footage of the attacks, prompting Kremlin sources to claim that repairs could be completed within three months. However, current assessments suggest a more protracted disruption.
The Kyiv-based open-source intelligence agency Molfar, through Maxar satellite imagery analysis, reports a stark decline in military logistics across the bridge. Between May and September 2023, freight and passenger trains had crossed it regularly, but post-July strikes, the volume of trains carrying weapons and ammunition plummeted from as many as 46 per day to a mere four or five, according to the head of the SBU, Vasyl Maliuk.
By March and April 2024, Molfar’s surveillance indicated that no freight trains with military equipment were detected traversing the bridge’s railway. This change in usage patterns suggests alternative supply routes are being utilized by Russia, as noted by Molfar’s CEO Artem Starosiek, who emphasized the bridge’s diminished role in military logistics.
The symbolic and strategic importance of the Kerch Bridge cannot be overstated, for both Moscow and Kyiv. Its considerable emotional value is reflected in the words of Starosiek, who, despite acknowledging the bridge’s current non-use for military freight, voiced a desire to hit it as a Ukrainian, while as a military analyst, he acknowledged that other railway targets might now be more urgent for Ukraine to strike.
The news of alternative supply routes is corroborated by reports of a new 450-mile rail line from Russia’s Rostov-on-Don to occupied cities such as Melitopol. This line, which could represent a “serious problem” for Ukraine, as Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov suggested, hints at Russia’s continued strategic maneuvering in the region.
Notably, the discussion around the Kerch Bridge also extends to the possibility of new weaponry, such as ATACMS or Taurus missiles, playing a role in future conflicts over Crimea. As suggested by analysts, the delivery of such advanced armaments to Ukraine could signal a game changer in the strategic dynamics of the region.
Relevant articles:
– Ukraine’s Crimea Bridge Bluster Appears to Have Paid Off, Newsweek, 05/08/2024
– Putin’s Crimea bridge has been out of military use for at least 3 months, satellite images suggest, Business Insider, 05/07/2024
– Ukraine Faces ‘Crucial’ Battle for Chasiv Yar, Newsweek, 05/07/2024
– OPINION: What if Ukraine Destroys Russia’s Strategically Vital Kerch Bridge?, Kyiv Post, 05/07/2024
– Ukraine war latest: Russia ‘developing nuclear power plant’ for joint moon base with China, Sky News, 05/07/2024