Belarus, an erstwhile Soviet republic, has initiated an unexpected nuclear readiness inspection, displaying the country’s preparedness to deploy tactical nuclear weapons. This action closely aligns with Russia’s maneuvers and appears to be a strategic gesture to reinforce Moscow’s position amid its conflict with Ukraine.
President Alexander Lukashenko mandated the shock inspection of forces responsible for the non-strategic nuclear weapons. Belarus’ Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said that during the drills, “the entire range of activities from planning, preparation and use of strikes with tactical nuclear weapons will be checked.” They will involve a squadron of Su-25 aircraft and an Iskander missile division.
Lukashenko, a staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been instrumental in strengthening bilateral relations, especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In a bold disclosure, Lukashenko previously admitted that “several dozen” tactical nuclear weapons from Russia had been stationed within Belarus, a significant move reflecting the deepening military cooperation between the two nations.
Experts, including those from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), interpret Belarus’s actions as a part of Russia’s broader strategy to exert pressure on Western powers. These developments aim to dissuade further military assistance to Ukraine by elevating the stakes and showcasing a heightened military readiness on Europe’s doorstep.
The ISW suggests that this act of defiance serves as “part of the Kremlin’s re-intensified reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making,” and is “likely meant to bolster the Kremlin’s effort to coerce the West into self-deterring from providing additional military assistance to Ukraine.”
These military exercises in Belarus trail just behind Russian President Putin’s command to carry out tactical nuclear weapons drills, which themselves were a reaction to what the Russian defense ministry termed as provocative statements from the West.
Belarus’s sudden demonstration of nuclear capability is not an isolated event but part of a calculated response to recent Western support for Ukraine. France’s President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to rule out the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine, and UK Foreign Minister David Cameron’s confirmation of Ukraine’s right to employ British weapons against Russian soil have both drawn ire from the Kremlin.
Despite these saber-rattling moves, the ISW maintains that neither Russia nor Belarus is actively seeking nuclear escalation, considering the actual use of nuclear weapons improbable. Nonetheless, the rhetoric and military posturing serve as a tangible reminder of the volatile security situation in Eastern Europe and the fragile state of international peace.
Relevant articles:
– Putin Ally Makes Surprise Nuclear Move, Newsweek, 05/09/2024
– Russia uses Belarus’ nuclear readiness verification to cut Western aid to Ukraine – ISW, Рубрика, 05/08/2024
– ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Map and Update May 7, 2024, Kyiv Post, 05/08/2024
– Belarus conducts drills with warplanes capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons, Yeni Şafak English, 05/08/2024
– Belarus, Russia conduct tactical nuclear inspections to check army combat readiness, Firstpost, 05/07/2024