As the conflict in Ukraine endures, Moscow has altered its logistic strategy by ceasing to utilize the Crimean Bridge for military resupply, satellite imagery analysis reveals. Instead, Russian forces have shifted to overland routes within annexed eastern Ukraine, a move that experts believe is a direct response to Ukrainian attacks and possibly part of a larger reorientation ahead of an anticipated summer offensive.
The Crimean Bridge, which has symbolically and logistically been key since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, has seen a significant reduction in traffic, particularly military freight trains, following deliberate strikes by Ukrainian forces. Molfar, Ukraine’s largest private intelligence agency, using Maxar’s satellite imaging technology, has detailed the bridge’s reduced military utility. “In that period just a single Russian freight train carrying around 55 fuel cars was seen crossing the bridge on 29 February,” said Molfar, indicating a stark decline from the previously high volume of military logistics.
The decisive pivot from the Kerch Bridge follows a notable attack last year on 17 July 2023, after which the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dubbed the bridge a “legitimate military target,” declaring it instrumental in “bringing war, not peace.” His sentiment was grounded in the belief that the bridge was essential in supplying Russian troops with ammunition.
Since the 17 July attack, Russia has reduced bridge usage for military resupply, as revealed by Molfar’s analysis, which showed no movement of Russian military assets on the bridge in March or April. Previously, more than 40 trains carrying weapons crossed the bridge daily, a figure that has now plummeted to negligible levels.
The strategic shift of Russian supply lines includes the construction of new rail lines connecting the occupied Ukrainian regions with Crimea and mainland Russia. The rail line extending from Melitopol to Berdyansk and Mariupol, before reaching Rostov in Russia, has seen heightened activity. “The new rail line…will probably be used by Russian forces for a new offensive widely expected to begin this summer,” said Artem Starosiek, CEO of Molfar. The railway, with both new and restored tracks, was tested with its first freight train in March, suggesting its nearing completion and operational readiness.
Starosiek also stressed the potential advantages Ukraine could gain by refocusing on these overland supply routes. “It is these paths that are currently a more serious threat than the non-working railway path of the Crimean bridge,” he stated, proposing a strategic redirection of Ukrainian and Western efforts to counter the resupply of Russian forces.
Given the adjustments in supply routes, Kyiv is now advised to concentrate on areas like Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Mariupol, where Russia is actively laying railway tracks. These newly established logistics channels are expected to play a key role in supporting the next phase of Russian military operations in Ukraine.
The reconfiguration of supply lines speaks to the agility of military logistics in modern warfare and the constant recalibration by combatants in response to evolving circumstances.
Relevant articles:
– Media: Russia no longer using Crimean Bridge to supply front lines , Kyiv Independent, 05/10/2024
– Russians no longer use Crimean bridge to supply weapons — The Independent, Громадське радіо, 05/07/2024
– Blackwall Tunnel closure: Drivers warned of heavy traffic on alternative routes during May and June roadworks, Yahoo News Australia, 05/08/2024
– russia stops using the Crimean bridge for military supplies – The Independent, Українські Національні Новини, 05/07/2024
– Has Russia Continued to Utilize the Crimean Bridge for Military Purposes?, Globe Echo, 05/09/2024