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    Ukraine’s Relentless Assault: Black Sea Fleet’s Sinking Vessels and Strategic Consequences

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    Ukraine has dealt a series of crippling blows to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, sinking numerous vessels in a relentless campaign that has significantly altered the naval landscape in the region. The latest in a string of high-profile attacks was the destruction of the Russian Karakurt-class missile corvette, Tsiklon, on May 19, 2024, at Sevastopol port. This attack underscores a broader pattern where Ukrainian forces, using innovative and long-range weaponry, have continually outmatched Russia’s naval defenses.

    The Tsiklon, a 220-foot vessel launched in 2023, represented a significant asset to the Black Sea Fleet. Ukrainian sources confirmed the vessel’s sinking, pointing to the use of American-supplied ATACMS missiles in the attack. This particular engagement highlighted the vulnerabilities of Russia’s naval assets despite their technological advancements. “If ATACMS are taking out Russian warships in Sevastopol, hard to see the base having much utility left for the Russians,” noted Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews.

    Ukraine’s naval strategy has evolved dramatically since the onset of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Unable to match Russia’s navy ship-for-ship, Ukraine has instead leveraged unmanned drones and long-range anti-ship missiles with remarkable effectiveness. This asymmetric approach has led to the sinking or severe damaging of approximately half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet vessels, which initially numbered around 80.

    The Moskva, the fleet’s flagship, was one of the earliest high-profile casualties. On April 14, 2022, the guided missile cruiser was sunk by Ukrainian Neptune missiles, marking the first time a Russian flagship had been downed by enemy action since the early 1900s. “I can say that the Black Sea fleet operations have been greatly complicated, if not paralyzed,” remarked Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Naval Forces.

    Several other notable losses for Russia include the Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don and the Ropucha-class landing ship Minsk, both critically damaged during a Ukrainian missile strike on a dry dock in Sevastopol on September 13, 2023. The submarine, in particular, suffered “catastrophic damage,” with repair efforts expected to take years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars, according to the UK Ministry of Defense.

    The most recent attacks have leveraged advanced weaponry, including the ATACMS rockets supplied by the United States. These missiles, capable of hitting targets up to 190 miles away, have proven to be a game-changer. The destruction of the Tsiklon and the Project 266M minesweeper Kovrovets—both confirmed by Russian sources—demonstrates Ukraine’s growing capability to strike deep within Russian-held territory. “The Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, together with their comrades, continue to bring us closer to victory,” the Ukrainian Navy stated on Telegram.

    The strategic implications of these losses are profound. The Black Sea Fleet has been forced to relocate many of its remaining vessels to ports further from the conflict zone, reducing their operational effectiveness. This redeployment, however, does not fully shield them from the reach of Ukraine’s expanding missile arsenal. The fleet’s diminished capacity also impacts Russia’s logistical and operational capabilities in Crimea and beyond.

    Moreover, Ukraine’s ability to disrupt and degrade the Black Sea Fleet extends to broader strategic targets, such as the Kerch Bridge. Fabian Hoffmann, a researcher with the Oslo Nuclear Project, noted that accurate ATACMS with unitary warheads could pose a serious threat to this critical infrastructure, potentially isolating Russian forces in Crimea.

    Relevant articles:
    These Are Vessels in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet That Ukraine Took Out , Business Insider, 05/23/2024
    Ukrainian Missiles Are Blowing Up The Black Sea Fleet’s New Missile Corvettes Faster Than Russia Can Build Them, Forbes, 05/21/2024
    Russian sources confirm Tsiklon Karakurt-class missile ship was sunk b, Army Recognition, 05/22/2024
    Ukraine Navy: Missile Strikes Sinking One Russian Warship Confirmed, Second Probable, Kyiv Post, 05/20/2024
    In Blowing Up A Russian Minesweeper, Ukraine May Have Revealed A Secret: It Has ATACMS Rockets With 470-Pound Warheads, Forbes, 05/19/2024

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