U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent comments concerning Ukraine’s potential NATO membership and the escalating conflict with Russia have reverberated through international diplomatic circles.
In an address at a NATO Summit on April 4, Blinken made a pronounced statement: “Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Our purpose at the summit is to help build a bridge to that membership.” This assertion has raised numerous concerns, given Russia’s long-standing opposition to NATO’s eastward expansion, which it perceives as a direct threat to its national security.
At the 2008 NATO conference in Bucharest, then-President George W. Bush advocated for Georgia and Ukraine’s NATO membership, only to be met with resistance from allies such as France and Germany. The conference concluded with a vague promise of future membership for both countries, which lacked any concrete timeline. Russia’s reaction was swift and severe, as illustrated by its subsequent invasions of Georgia and Crimea in 2008 and 2014, respectively.
“Such implicit promises provoke Russia, which has stated on multiple occasions that the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine is a red line, while doing nothing to enhance Ukraine’s security,” one analysis pointed out. Indeed, the current conflict, which began with Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Blinken’s recent visit to Kyiv, amidst renewed Russian offensives, seems to have shifted his position. “The consensus around that policy is fraying,” reports suggest.
Voices both within and outside the administration caution against this policy shift. Elbridge Colby, a former deputy assistant defense secretary, warned of the “exceptional and ill-advised danger in this course,” noting Russia’s credible threat to “counter-escalate.” Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center echoed these sentiments, stating that Blinken’s move “makes any eventual negotiation all but impossible.”
In contrast, Ukrainian officials have welcomed Blinken’s apparent shift. Nataliia Halibarenko, head of Ukraine’s mission to NATO, expressed optimism, stating, “Blinken’s statement, which he repeated twice, that Ukraine is the one to choose its targets, created hope that the United States had changed its position.”
Observers caution that granting NATO membership to Ukraine could draw the alliance into direct conflict with Russia. White House national security spokesman John Kirby remarked in July 2023, “NATO membership in the immediate future isn’t likely because that would put NATO at war with Russia.”
Critics emphasize that Russia’s weakened state makes it particularly dangerous. As one analysis noted, “We should fear Russia not because it is strong, but because it is weak. A strong great power would not have many security concerns. It could weather provocations like this one. It would be secure in the knowledge that it has the power to deter its enemies from attacking it or acting against its core interests, and the current regime would have strong domestic support. But Russia is not a strong great power, it is a weak one, and that is precisely why it is dangerous.”
Relevant articles:
– Anthony Blinken Is Playing a Dangerous Game with Ukraine – AIER , AIER – Daily Economy News, 05/24/2024
– Critics Call Blinken’s Embrace of Ukrainian Attacks on Russia ‘Deeply Ill-Advised’, Common Dreams, 05/23/2024
– Danger of world war grows by the day over Ukraine, People’s World, 05/23/2024
– American soldiers in Ukraine? Thiele warns: “We’re raising the risk factor.”, aussiedlerbote.de, 05/23/2024
– NYT: Blinken supports lifting ban on Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with US arms., UAZMI – Ukraine News, 05/23/2024
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