Gordon Sondland, former U.S. ambassador to the European Union, is no stranger to the complex and often contradictory foreign policy of Donald Trump, especially as it pertains to Ukraine and NATO. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dragging into its third year, understanding what a second Trump term could mean for Europe is more pressing than ever.
Reflecting on his time with Trump, Sondland shared a candid moment when he asked the former president what he truly thought of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Trump’s blunt response, “That f**ker would knife me in the stomach if he had the chance,” underscores his capacity for harsh realism beneath the public praise of authoritarian figures.
Sondland argues that Trump’s apparent admiration for strongmen like Vladimir Putin is part of a “contrarian strategy.” He believes Trump employs a “Madman theory wrapped in velvet gloves,” a tactic that could keep Putin off balance and ultimately benefit Ukraine. “He does not like Putin at all. At all,” Sondland asserted, emphasizing that Trump’s public compliments should be seen as strategic posturing rather than genuine admiration.
Sondland’s insights draw from his firsthand experience during Trump’s first impeachment, which centered on allegations that Trump withheld military aid to Ukraine to pressure its government to investigate Joe Biden. Despite these controversies, Sondland maintains that Trump fundamentally understands the stakes in Ukraine and would support Kyiv robustly if reelected.
Trump’s public threats to withdraw support from NATO allies failing to meet defense spending benchmarks and his erratic policy declarations are, according to Sondland, part of a larger strategy to catalyze action and disrupt complacency. “It takes destabilization in order to get action,” Sondland explained. This approach, while controversial, could force European leaders to bolster their commitments to collective defense and support for Ukraine.
European leaders, Sondland suggests, should engage Trump directly to sway his decisions on NATO and Ukraine. “I would encourage them to physically meet with Trump as much as possible,” he advised, adding that Trump’s transactional nature makes him receptive to direct praise and clear arguments about how supporting Ukraine aligns with American interests.
Sondland’s advocacy for Ukraine extends beyond his diplomatic role. Now a registered lobbyist for Ukraine, he works pro bono to rally congressional support for continued U.S. aid to Kyiv. “As a [U.S.] citizen who believes strongly in Ukraine’s survival and total victory, I felt it’s my duty,” he said. His goal is to sway “fence-sitters” within the Republican Party, particularly those in the House, who might be convinced to back Ukraine with the right arguments.
Despite Sondland’s optimistic view, not all of Trump’s former officials share his perspective. Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper and National Security Advisor John Bolton have both expressed concerns that Trump might abandon support for Ukraine and NATO if reelected. Bolton even remarked that Putin is “waiting” for Trump to win, expecting a favorable shift in U.S. policy towards Russia.
Sondland remains undeterred by these dissenting views, attributing Trump’s contradictory statements to campaign rhetoric intended to energize his base. “He supports Ukraine. He totally understands the stakes. I really believe that,” Sondland insisted, suggesting that Trump’s provocations are meant to keep his supporters engaged until he can act more strategically once in office.
Relevant articles:
– Gordon Sondland Has a Trump Playbook for NATO and Ukraine, Foreign Policy, 05/23/2024
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