As the United States approaches a pivotal election, senior US officials have voiced concerns that North Korea, emboldened by its increasingly close ties with Russia, could engage in military provocations that could unsettle the global stage. The fears are compounded by the belief that such actions may be encouraged by Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the intent to create chaos as Americans head to the polls.
North Korea’s military actions have the potential to be significantly escalatory this year, as noted by a US intelligence official. There is a growing apprehension that these actions could coincide with the November election, a period that could be used to create turmoil in a world already unsettled by various geopolitical tensions.
The Kremlin has confirmed that preparations are underway for Putin’s official visit to North Korea. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, stated,”President Putin has an active invitation for an official visit to North Korea. The visit is being prepared. We will announce the dates of the trip in due course.” This visit is seen as a potential catalyst for deeper military collaboration between Pyongyang and Moscow.
The relationship between North Korea and Russia has become increasingly close in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Pyongyang has not only provided munitions to Moscow but also seeks to strengthen its defense, nuclear, and space programs through advanced weaponry and technology from Russia. According to a think tank, North Korea “expects Russia to provide advanced weapons systems and technological know-how.”
Concerns have been raised that the burgeoning alliance could result in advancements in Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities, heightening tensions in the Asia-Pacific region. Rachel Minyoung Lee, a Senior Fellow with the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center, expressed that North Korea’s strengthening ties with Russia could “embolden” Kim Jong Un to conduct more aggressive military or diplomatic action in the coming years.
The exchange between the two nations has not been one-sided. North Korea has already provided substantial military aid to Russia.However, there have been reports of a high failure rate among North Korean-supplied weapons, as indicated by the office of Ukraine’s top prosecutor, Andriy Kostin.
US officials fear that the relationship might lead to significant developments in North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, increasing tensions in the region.
As the US prepares for the possibility of a North Korean provocation, former President Donald Trump’s campaign has dismissed the concern, with a campaign spokesperson saying,”The only ‘October surprise’ will be the look of shock” among reporters when Trump is reelected.
It is worth noting that the US intelligence community has previously accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 election to assist Trump. The increasing closeness between Putin and Kim Jong Un signals a departure from the past, where Russia cooperated with the US in attempts to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Now, with the use of veto power on the U.N. Security Council, Russia seems poised to provide cover for Pyongyang to evade sanctions and further its nuclear program.
Relevant articles:
– US fears North Korean military action, create chaos before election: report , Business Insider,05/25/2024
– U.S. fears Putin and Kim Jong-Un are planning a military October surprise to spark chaos before the election… as Russia supplies North Korea with nuclear technology, Daily Mail,05/24/2024
– Are Russia and North Korea planning an ‘October surprise’ that aids Trump? NBC News,05/24/2024
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