With another Atlantic hurricane season on the horizon, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its annual forecast, drawing attention to the potential for significant tropical activity. NOAA’s outlook indicates an 85% chance of an above-normal season, raising concerns for coastal communities and emergency services.
According to NOAA, the period from June 1 to November 30 could see a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher. Out of these, 8 to 13 could escalate into hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA’s forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges, reflecting a rigorous analysis of current oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
These predictions surpass the previous highest pre-season outlook which had anticipated 14 to 23 named storms back in 2010. The 2024 season’s heightened activity is attributed to several converging factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the onset of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear. These conditions collectively create a more conducive environment for tropical storm formation.
“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”
The scientific community is paying close attention to the west African monsoon’s potential impact on the season. An above-normal monsoon could lead to the formation of African easterly waves, known for spawning some of the most powerful and enduring Atlantic hurricanes. Additionally, light trade winds not only allow hurricanes to strengthen but also minimize ocean cooling, leading to more intense storms.
NOAA is also taking steps to improve its storm response and recovery processes. This year, NOAA will deploy new forecast models to enhance hurricane intensity predictions and will utilize innovative tools such as the next-generation Flood Inundation Mapping. Observational technology will also receive a boost, with upgraded buoys and the deployment of 11-12 Saildrones designed to collect real-time oceanic data.
“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”