Two out of 10 to as many as three out of 10 Republican primary voters in Ohio still opposed former President Donald Trump’s potential 2024 candidacy. Additionally, nearly half of those who supported Nikki Haley in an ABC News exit poll of Ohio’s GOP primary indicated they would vote for Joe Biden in the November election.
While most respondents expressed loyalty to Trump, the extent of internal party conflicts could prove crucial in the close upcoming November competition against President Biden. Despite securing his party’s nomination, 20% of Ohio GOP primary voters would be dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee, as per exit polling. Furthermore, 22% noted his lack of essential temperament for effective service, and 28% indicated he would not be fit for office if convicted of a crime. (He denies all accusations.)
Among Haley’s supporters, who turned out even after her withdrawal from the presidential race, this discontent is particularly pronounced. An astounding 88% of Haley voters would be dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee, and a resounding 91% believe he lacks the temperament necessary for office.
The exit polls further detail that 80% of Haley’s backers wouldn’t vote for Trump in the general election, with a notable 47% expressing a preference for Biden and 32% opting out of voting for either candidate. This is a stark contrast to the 18% of Haley supporters who would stand by Trump in the fall. Moreover, Haley voters display a broader dissent from the party line, with 60% deeming the Republican Party “too conservative,” highlighting fundamental ideological divides.
The significance of these sentiments is not lost when viewed in the context of Trump’s preferred U.S. Senate candidate in Ohio, Bernie Moreno, whose triumph in the primary is credited to the overwhelming support of Trump-approving voters. The ideological undercurrents within the GOP electorate played a pivotal role in Moreno’s victory, as he led significantly among key Trump demographics, such as white evangelical Christians and strong conservatives.
Yet, the fissures revealed by the loyalty of Haley’s supporters to Biden raise questions about Trump’s capacity to rally a unified front going into November. These preliminary exit poll results indicate that Trump’s grip on the Republican electorate may not be as ironclad as it appears, particularly when juxtaposed with the loyalty and approval Moreno garnered from Senate primary voters who are strong Trump proponents.
Nonetheless, the potential convergence of Republican support around Trump may not solely be contingent upon his overt endeavors to sway those Haley voters. In a broader context, insights gleaned from prior electoral outcomes imply that a significant portion of Haley’s adherents will eventually align themselves with Trump. More precisely, self-identified Republicans and independent voters leaning towards the GOP exhibit a high propensity to “return home” to endorse their party’s chosen candidate. While it is plausible that a considerable number of Haley’s more moderate independent supporters may withhold their support for Trump in the final analysis, a notable segment within this substantial secondary cohort had never harbored inclinations to vote for Trump from the outset — a phenomenon that has sporadically manifested in other recent nomination contests.
Relevant articles:
– Nearly half of Haley voters in Ohio say they’d back Biden: Preliminary exit polls
– Trump and Biden struggle to quash party rebellions ahead of November rematch, Washington Examiner, Wed, 20 Mar 2024 02:39:45 GMT
– Key takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries: Warning signs for Trump, Biden; Moreno wins Ohio GOP Senate primary, Yahoo! Voices, Wed, 20 Mar 2024 13:59:25 GMT
– Many Haley voters won’t back Trump. They weren’t going to anyway., ABC News, Thu, 14 Mar 2024 21:41:54 GMT