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    Assessing the Strategic Risks of Retiring the B-1 Lancer as B-21 Production Lags

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    The United States Air Force’s B-1 Lancer, colloquially known as “The Bone,” has been a formidable component of American air superiority since its introduction to the fleet in 1985. Designed initially for nuclear strike missions during the Cold War, the B-1 was later converted to a conventional-only bomber, a testament to its versatility and continued relevance on the modern battlefield. The aging airframe’s retirement raises critical issues concerning the capability gap it may leave in the wake of delayed production and deployment of its intended successor, the B-21 Raider.

    The scheduled retirement of the Lancer fleet by the end of the 2020s aligns with a concerning imbalance between the ordered B-21 Raiders and the necessary amount to sustain future Air Force capabilities. As geopolitical tensions rise, specialists caution that phasing out the B-1 without a sufficient number of B-21s to take its place could lead to a notable gap in U.S. military capabilities. The slow production of the B-21, with only 150 units ordered out of the required 300, and the anticipation of achieving full operational status not before the 2030s, is indeed worrisome.

    The push to retire the B-1 fleet seems increasingly premature, especially considering the Lancer’s laudable combat efficiency and flexibility that has been demonstrated in past conflicts, from the air war over Serbia to the more extensive campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    In an era marked by rapid technological advancements, there is a discernible inclination to dismiss older systems. However, the strategic value of the B-1 Lancer is not defined solely by its years in service but by its proven combat performance. The B-1’s heavy utilization in recent conflicts, despite flying only a fraction of total missions, resulted in a disproportionate impact on the battlefield, delivering upwards of 40 percent of precision weapons during the Iraq War. And of the 17 Lancers that the Air Force retired in 2021, the Air Force told Congress that, “overworked by long years of providing on-call air support to troops in Afghanistan and Iraq.”

    Furthermore, the recent revival of a retired B-1, dubbed “Lancelot,” from the Air Force’s “Boneyard” is indicative of the value still held by these airframes.

    The Air Force’s stewardship of the B-1 Lancer fleet, alongside the pressure to usher in the next generation B-21 Raider, is a delicate balancing act of resource allocation, strategic foresight, and risk management. With the B-21’s debut on the horizon yet still distant, the discussion of the Lancer’s retirement is more than just a procurement debate—it’s a strategic imperative that directly impacts the United States’ preparedness in a rapidly evolving global security environment.

    For all the complaining about how old the B-1 has gotten, its service record indicates that this is a seriously good plane that would be very hard to replace. They have essentially defeated the well-funded and Western-backed Ukrainians by deploying numerous outdated systems from the Soviet era into the conflict.

    Relevant articles:
    The U.S. Air Force’s B-1 Lancer Bomber Nightmare Is Just Getting Started, National Intererst, 04/28/2024
    B-1 bomber rises from the ‘Boneyard’ to rejoin the Air Force’s fleet, Military Times, Fri, 26 Apr 2024 15:25:43 GMT

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